Covid-19: ‘We could hit 80pc fully vaccinated by November’, economists say

Australia could reach 80 per cent vaccination rates and be free of the threat of lockdowns by ­November if it matches the world-leading pace set by Canada, economists say.

Australia could reach 80 per cent vaccination rates and be free of the threat of lockdowns by ­November if it matches the world-leading pace set by Canada, economists say.

Scott Morrison this week said reaching the 70 per cent threshold by the end of the year was ­“absolutely achievable” if “we all turn up to the task and we have a gold medal run till Christmas”.

Jarden chief economist Carlos Cacho said that the pace of vaccination would ramp up in October with the arrival of more Pfizer doses. With the pace of the rollout no longer limited by supply from that point, Mr Cacho then looked at the experience of other advanced economies to project when Australia might reach thresholds laid out by the ­Doherty Institute.

That epidemiological modelling identified a national vaccination rate of 70 per cent of the adult population (aged 16 and over) as the point at which the country could begin to manage Covid-19 outbreaks without ­resorting to lockdowns, or Phase B of the government’s transition plan. At 80 per cent, in Phase C, hardline health measures ­become even less likely and fully vaccinated Australians would be able to escape remaining ­restrictions.

Mr Cacho said he expected the national 70 per cent threshold to be achieved by November or December, and the 80 per cent threshold by January or February next year.

“While it is possible that the recent surge in vaccinations can be maintained and see Sydney reach the 70 per cent threshold by early to mid-September, we think a more likely outcome is some moderation after reaching 50-60 per cent and achieving the 70 per cent threshold in late September to early October, with lockdowns potentially remaining in place until then,” he said.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil Odonaghoe, who compared vaccination rollouts across eight OECD countries, said that “while vaccine supplies and strategies vary significantly across the group, a hopeful sign is that even the slowest in the group to reach the threshold, Hungary, did so on a timeline that could see Australia reach its (70 per cent) target in early November”.

“If Australia can match the ­average rollout speed of our group of eight, (Iceland, Chile, ­Israel, Canada, Spain, Belgium, the UK and Hungary) the first threshold could be reached on October 8,” he said.

Even at the current trajectory – and without any acceleration – seven in 10 Australians would be fully inoculated by December, Mr Odonaghoe said.

NAB economist Taylor ­Nugent said “a plausible acceleration in the rollout based on international experience suggests we could get to 70 per cent by late October and 80 per cent by mid-November”.