COVID-19 Lockdown a potential ‘tipping point’ for Brisbane businesses

More than 27,000 Brisbane businesses moving off JobKeeper this week are bracing for a three-day lockdown without the cushion of the emergency wage subsidy.

Brisbane residents line up to get COVID tests ahead of a three-day lockdown. Picture: Brad Fleet

More than 27,000 Brisbane businesses moving off JobKeeper this week are bracing for a three-day lockdown without the cushion of the emergency wage subsidy, as Queensland’s peak small business group warns the restrictions could be the “tipping point” for many.

As tourism operators braced for another blow to travel plans ahead of the Easter holiday period, analysis by ANZ suggested spending could plunge by 40 per cent this week as shoppers and diners are forced to stay at home.

ANZ economist Adelaide Timbrell said the experience of previous short, sharp lockdowns in Brisbane and other state capitals to control COVID-19 outbreaks over recent months suggested the hit to retail spending would be ­severe, if temporary.

Ms Timbrell said the “one big difference” this week was that JobKeeper was no longer subsidising the cost of permanent and long-term casual staff for companies that are unable to operate.

This would “exacerbate” the ­financial damage, she said.

Analysis of Treasury data by The Australian shows there were 27,636 businesses and sole traders on JobKeeper in January, or nearly half of the reported 57,935 recipients across the state.

Chamber of Commerce and ­Industry Queensland’s Amanda Rohan said for those companies that were already struggling, the latest shutdown “very well could be the tipping point for many businesses in Brisbane”.

The Queensland head of national employer association Ai Group, Rebecca Andrews, said the lockdown “couldn’t have come at a worse time for businesses facing their first day without JobKeeper”.

Opposition Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers accused the Morrison government of “abandoning” the “thousands of workers and their employers in local communities who have done their best to cling on”.

Ms Rohan called for an emergency relief fund that businesses could draw on to recoup money lost during future outbreaks that trigger such severe social-distancing restrictions.

Ms Andrews said states needed to develop a greater capacity to manage small outbreaks without resorting to shutdowns.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the state’s northern border would not be closed, but asked residents who intended to travel to Brisbane to change their plans, and for those who had plans to travel to wider Queensland to “consider” not going.

South Australia and Western Australia announced they would implement border restrictions with the Sunshine State.

Australian Tourism Industry Council chief executive Simon Westaway said the timing ahead of the start of school holidays, and the release of government-­subsidised flights from Thursday, was “not fantastic”. He reiterated his call for further support for the tourism industry, which will likely suffer another blow after the latest COVID-19 outbreak.

“A lot of travel is in the aspiration and in the time of booking, and that requires certainty,” Mr Westaway said.

“This will reinforce what a lot of people are thinking: that it’s difficult to travel interstate.”

Brisbane’s lockdown in January knocked a roughly $100m hole in monthly retail trade across the state, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. That 1.5 per cent drop in Queensland retail turnover contrasted with average growth in other states of 0.6 per cent, suggesting the Sunshine State’s retailers lost out on $135m in business.

CBA senior economist Belinda Allen said while the hit to the state would be noticeable, it wouldn’t be enough to dent the national economic performance.