Coronavirus: World Bank supports lockdown

The World Bank says Australia and Victoria were right to act early and decisively to control the first and second waves of COVID-19.

World Bank research supports Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ heavy handed approach to suppressing the state’s second wave. Picture: AAP

The World Bank says Australia and Victoria were right to act early and decisively to control the first and second waves of COVID-19, with research showing that voluntary social distancing would hamstring any economic recovery if communities remained worried about catching the virus.

“As long as significant health risks persist, economic activity is likely to remain subdued,” a research paper from the inter­national body found.

In a paper dissecting the economic effects of the “great lockdown”, a team of World Bank economists found voluntary social distancing contributed nearly as much to a drop in mobility across 128 countries as compulsory lockdowns in the first three months of the ­pandemic.

The findings emphasised that the decision to stay at home or limit contact with others through the health crisis has been as much down to personal choice as official dictat. Without success on the health front, there would be no ­return to business as usual, the authors said.

They said their findings challenged the “prevailing narrative” that shutdowns involved a trade-off between saving lives and supporting the economy. “This characterisation of lives versus livelihoods neglects that … lockdowns impose short-term costs but may lead to a faster economic recovery as they lower infections and thus the extent of voluntary social distancing.”

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’s roadmap out of strict lockdowns in Melbourne, where restrictions will be fully removed only following 28 consecutive days of zero transmission, has been criticised as overly cautious but the World Bank researchers said their findings warned “against lifting lockdowns prematurely in hopes of jump-starting economic activity”.