Covid-19’s spread in Sydney looms as a potentially momentous development for Canberra and the states.
While anyone with a brain is rooting for the Berejiklian government’s health response, a large outbreak in the nation’s population capital would up-end much of the federal Coalition’s rhetoric on fighting the coronavirus.
It’s no secret that the Morrison government has used NSW’s success (so far) as a blunt weapon to bludgeon the policy and strategic failures that have inflicted a succession of lockdowns on Victoria and border closures elsewhere.
No one should try to defend some of the basic errors that have occurred, principally in Melbourne.
Having emerged from Lockdown 4.0, the city is discombobulated – the latest lockdown ending with a whimper rather than a bang, creating a feeling of Sydney envy, as the Harbour City has sailed its way seemingly forever onwards and upwards.
If Berejiklian can control this outbreak without lengthy lockdowns, this perception will continue, and it will make life tougher for Anthony Albanese and Dan Andrews.
But a big breakout with harsh lockdown measures in NSW would be a political game-changer, bad for Gladys – and potentially terrible for the Morrison government.
This is because the vaccination program isn’t going nearly as well as it should, the quarantine question remains unresolved and the global experience is that this virus will remain tricky for years.
Voters do not like being locked up, particularly when they have had 18 months of being sold a narrative that harsh, widespread measures are counter-productive to society.
The evidence of life in Victoria is that roughly six months with heavy restrictions on movement and business have led to a sharp shift away from state Labor in the two most recent opinion polls.
While Andrews attracted support for his relentlessness, his government is off the boil.
It’s a fair bet that the same would happen in Sydney, with the federal election the first time for voters to show their loyalty – or otherwise – to the Liberal/Nationals brand.
In many ways, it has seemed bewildering that NSW has been able to wander through the pandemic with minimal disruption to society, save for the occasional outbreak and (in a global sense) very few changes to daily life.
Which points to better contact tracing but maybe also a significant amount of luck, fuelled by geographical advantages evidenced in the northern beaches outbreak.
This outbreak, though, looks and feels different.
It comes on the back of a highly successful, 18-month health campaign that has kept the coronavirus contained, fuelling complacency.
The global evidence is that Covid-19 cannot easily be contained.
That even the success stories are punctuated by bad chapters.
The hope is that it is ring-fenced and the virus doesn’t sweep Sydney.
But if it has broken free, it won’t just be a health-and-safety issue.
It will be a political landmine.
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