Coronavirus: Scott Morrisons hands over to premiers; all eyes on Daniel Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian

Australia’s economic recovery now hinges on the premiers and chief ministers. In coming weeks they will face intense political pressures to ease the worst economic crisis in 90 years, notably the laggards Dan Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian.

The question cannot be dodged: do the premiers accept responsibility for the crisis in jobs, business and human tragedies or are they free riders on the Morrison government and the banks, who keep the economy alive at such dire cost?

Every day counts and every week counts. Yet some premiers seem to have a different agenda — prioritising shutdown caution over saving jobs, incomes and economic life. They need to rethink. They should be careful because the politics were transformed on Friday at the national cabinet with the plan to restore 850,000 jobs as soon as practicable.

Scott Morrison declares “every job is essential”. Morrison wants a full COVID-safe economy operating by July in three agreed phases — and even that is cautious. Morrison has denied cover for wayward premiers. The premiers wanted responsibility for each state’s recovery. Now they have it — so how long will they deny people’s livelihoods? How long will they keep much of the workforce on the dole and business in deep freeze?

The next few days will tell, with the pressure on Victoria and NSW as the West, Queensland and South Australia are moving. There is no problem with each state exercising its discretion. The problem will be if the premiers of the two biggest states that constitute much of the nation’s economy decide to advance more slowly.

National cabinet agreement on the three-stage recovery phase is a significant achievement. But Morrison was clear: political responsibility and implementation have passed to the premiers. The arguments for extra delay are weak. The cost in lost activity is $4bn weekly. The economic and human cost of extra delay is punitive and, given the medical outlook, difficult to justify. As Morrison said, there will be mistakes in recovery; there will be virus breakouts. What counts is our ability to contain them and that is impressive. Opening up the economy is more complex than shutting it down. To this stage, politics at state level has been dictated by the need to contain the virus, prevent infections, minimise deaths and prepare the hospital systems. Now there is a new narrative — restoration of economic and social life.

Some premiers will make this switch better than others. Some may calculate it is the national government, not the states, that will be blamed for economic hardship and unemployment. Smart premiers, however, will market the psychology of hope.

The wheel turned on Friday with the first tentative steps towards a form of COVID “normalisation”. The public’s mood will shift — maybe fast, maybe slow — from a premium on beating the virus to a premium on restoration of economic and social life.