Coronavirus: Older, unqualified at risk of retrenchment

The BCA says those most at risk of falling into long-term unemployment as a result of COVID-19 are older Australians.

Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott says those at risk of losing their jobs were the same group of people who did not find work again after the recession of the early 1990. Picture: AAP

Analysis from the Business Council of Australia shows the groups most at risk of falling into long-term unemployment as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are older people and those without qualifications beyond high school.

BCA chief executive Jennifer Westacott said new research showed that, before the government’s rescue package, “40 per cent of workers who would have lost their jobs were already at the highest risk of falling into long-term unemployment”.

Before the government introduced its package, BCA ­figures suggested 2.3 million full-time workers would have lost their job, representing about 20 per cent of the workforce — an outcome that would have devastated key sectors of the economy.

The new research shows that, of those who would have lost their jobs, 38.9 per cent were aged over 50, while 35.8 per cent were aged between 30 and 49. Only 25.3 per cent were in the 15-29-year-old age bracket.

By education, those with fewer qualifications were the most vulnerable. The research shows that 44.1 per cent of those forecast to lose their jobs would have been ­individuals with no further qualifications beyond the completion of high school.

A further 35.6 per cent would have been those who had completed advanced diplomas, while 15.2 per cent of displaced workers would have obtained a bachelor degree or a graduate diploma. Those who had completed postgraduate studies would have made up 4.1 per cent of the estimated job losses.

By tenure, those who had spent more than a decade in the same job were deemed to be at high risk, with this cohort representing 19.8 per cent of job losses.

Ms Westacott said those at risk of losing their jobs were the same group of people who did not found work again after the recession of the early 1990s.

“It is important we do everything we can to make sure they are not left behind,” she said. “Australians have pulled together to contain COVID-19, and we will need the same focus, co-operation and ­determination to set ourselves up for a strong recovery.”

The industries set to suffer the most job losses were “accommodation and food”, with the data showing this sector on track to lose 78 per cent of its workforce, or 493,000 jobs, before the government’s rescue package kicked in.

The “arts and rec” sector was forecast to lose 66 per cent of its workforce, and retail was also to take a big hit, with the loss of 45 per cent of its workforce. Construction and manufacturing were forecast to lose 29 per cent and 36 per cent of their workforces respectively.