Coronavirus: Labor MPs plot Daniel Andrews succession

Victorian Labor is debating for the first time in 10 years who should replace Daniel Andrews as leader.

With question marks over the leadership of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, the leading contenders to replace him include (clockwise from top left) Jacinta Allan, James Merlino, Jill Hennessy and Martin Pakula.

Victorian Labor is debating for the first time in 10 years who should replace Daniel Andrews as leader, after the state’s tumultuous battle with the coronavirus pandemic.

Powerbrokers are openly discussing the Victorian Premier’s future, with expectations that he will quit the job well ahead of the next election — due in 2022 — to enable his successor to mount their campaign.

Mr Andrews is now unlikely to be given the opportunity to anoint his successor, as the broad Right and Left factions debate whether to elevate Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan to the leadership.

A recent decision by key MPs linked to the old National Union of Workers to remain in the Right caucus will be central to any leadership ballot.

Ms Allan will face significant pressure from sections of the Right and within the Socialist Left who are opposed to her being handed the job, opening up the possibility of Labor having to find a compromise candidate in the form of Attorney-General Jill Hennessy.

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Both ministers are the frontrunners for the leadership and both are from the Left. The Right does not have an obvious successor to Mr Andrews despite being numerically dominant.

If the Right finally decides to contest the leadership, senior minister Martin Pakula would be a possible candidate.

There is now open speculation about Mr Andrews’s future as leader, but senior party sources said there was still an intention to allow the Premier to decide the timing of his exit.

“We want the virus under control and a clear strategy to take the state forward,’’ one senior MP told The Australian. “There is no point leaving while the place is on fire.’’

Multiple sources have said planning is under way for a potential resignation this year, although the first half of 2021 is considered the more likely scenario.

December 3 is the 10th anniversary of Mr Andrews’s election as Labor leader (he has been Premier for nearly six years), and the final report of the hotel quarantine inquiry is due in November.

As the virus first struck Victoria, a close confidante of Mr Andrews said the Premier would be backing Ms Allan as the best and most qualified person for the job.

At 46, Ms Allan is the most experienced female minister in the history of the Victorian parliament, having served in the Bracks, Brumby and Andrews governments. Highly ambitious, her biggest hurdle will be convincing critics in the Right and Left factions who believe she has been too abrasive and confrontational with colleagues.

Another senior source said that Ms Allan would likely receive support from some key members of the Right, including Treasurer Tim Pallas, and possibly other key cabinet colleagues.

The numbers in the Victorian caucus are 38 Right, two Industrial Left MPs, the Socialist Left on 30, plus one non-aligned.

The decision of the eight NUW MPs to remain in the Right faction is crucial. The old NUW has merged with United Voice to create the left-wing United Workers Union. Had the MPs swapped factions it would have handed the Socialist Left the numbers.

The demise of Right power­broker Adem Somyurek has not diminished the Right’s influence over the caucus, although there is significant soul-searching about whether the Right should seek to take control of the government.

The next election is due on ­November 26, 2022, but any new leader would need at least a year to establish their credibility.

Mr Andrews has ruled over the government with an iron fist, adopting an aggressive left social agenda. He has been brutal with his internal critics and has been the central figure in the government’s response to COVID-19.

There is growing criticism of the centralised nature of the government’s response, which has focused on a crisis cabinet group.

These ministers, which include Ms Allan and Ms Hennessy, have been at the forefront of the government’s response, although neither has had a leading public role.

Left sources said Mr Pakula would be targeted internally for his department’s role in helping set up the hotel quarantine process. This would be part of a strategy to block him from being considered for the leadership and enable a clearer run for Ms Allan.

However, senior Right sources said that an internal hit against Mr Pakula would not be tolerated because the problem with the quarantine was the lack of supervision by the Department of Health and Human Services.

“Marty is not to blame. The blame is elsewhere. If they try that on we will fight back extremely hard and that is not what they want,’’ a source said.

“When you don’t have the numbers, you don’t get the final say and you don’t get to execute the good guys.”

Sources said Ms Allan’s major hurdle was her mixed relationship with the caucus. Rather than questions about her competency, there were concerns about the way her colleagues were treated.

Mr Andrews is notoriously tough and hard-headed and a senior MP said the leadership transition, which could come within weeks, needed to be a healing process. “No one is going to want another head kicker; they are going to look for someone who can bring us all together,” the MP said.