Coronavirus: Double-digit drama puts reopening at risk

There have been six Victorian coronavirus cases with an unknown source in the fortnight to Sunday, and 13 in the most recent fortnight for which data is available.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews on Tuesday. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Victoria was supposed to have no more than five coronavirus cases with an unknown source of infection in the fortnight to Sunday according to the Andrews govern­ment’s reopening roadmap, but already there have been six so far in that period, and 13 in the most recent fortnight for which data is available.

Those 13 cases are spread across 12 different postcodes, on almost every compass point throughout Melbourne’s suburbs, highlighting the challenge the government faces as Victorians grow impatient after being in stay-at-home lockdown since July 7, but health authorities remain wary of repeating mistakes that exacerbated a second wave that peaked with 7880 active cases of the virus on August 11.

There were 12 new cases of corona­virus in Victoria on Tuesday, representing the sixth straight day of double-digit new cases and the 15th straight day of daily case numbers above the threshold of a 14-day daily average of no more than five, which was supposed to be reached by next Sunday for the state to be able to ease stay-at-home restrictions.

A single death brought Vic­toria’s coronavirus death toll to 811 — all but 19 of which are attributable to the second wave.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has repeatedly stated that Sunday’s planned easing of restrictions will now be less substantial, but that the government will be guided more by the “story behind” case numbers than the numbers themselves.

Key to the decisions will be “mystery” cases, where contact tracers have been unable to establish a source of infection, given that these cases each represent at least one other case that has most likely not been tested and traced.

The most recent “mystery” case for the fortnight to October 10 — the most recent 14 days for which the unknown source figure had been established on Tuesday — was detected on October 9 in a resident of postcode 3025, covering Altona East and Altona North in Melbourne’s southwest.

 

A case on October 8 was in a resident of postcode 3024, covering suburbs including Manor Lakes and Wyndham Vale in Melbourne’s outer southwest.

On October 7, there were three unknown source cases in three very different parts of Melbourne, from postcode 3184 covering the inner southeastern bayside suburb of Elwood, to 3015 covering Newport, South Kingsville and Spotswood in the gentrifying inner southwest, to 3037, which covers Calder Park, Hillside and Sydenham in the working class outer northwest.

A case on October 5 in postcode 3073, covering the northern suburb of Reservoir, rounds out the six cases that will be included in statistics for the fortnight preceding Sunday.

The fall in Melbourne’s daily number of mystery cases for the preceding fortnight also appears to have stalled, having ranged between 10 and 14 since October 2, despite having fallen from 154 on September 10.

Melbourne’s 14-day daily average number of new cases has also stalled, reaching 10 on Tuesday, up from 9.9 on Monday and a low of 9.4 on Friday, and down from 10.6 the previous Tuesday.