Coronavirus: Brokers warn of ‘lasting damage’ to Victorian economy

Victoria is at risk of ‘permanent lockdown’, according to one of the nation’s biggest stock­brokers.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews in Melbourne on Monday. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Victoria is at risk of “permanent lockdown”, according to one of the nation’s biggest stock­brokers, which has slammed the ­Andrews government’s harsh COVID-19 response as “extreme”, “futile” and likely to leave “lasting damage”.

The analysts said the number of new Victorian coronavirus cases peaked three days after the tougher stage four lockdowns were introduced in August (it takes up to 14 days for corona­virus symptoms to show), and that European nations with much lighter lockdowns had also seen their cases fall.

“The peak, therefore, had nothing to do with the stage four measures, and occurred as a result of the stage three measures,” the two analysts, based in Melbourne, concluded in a scathing 25-page note to clients.

They said no country had managed to reduce the number of new cases per day to five over a 14-day period (the Andrew government’s self-imposed trigger for lifting restrictions) — although Finland had managed to do it for six days.

“This places Victoria at risk of permanent lockdown, or yo-yoing in and out of lockdowns as cases likely rise once restrictions are loosened,” they said.

“The approach will leave lasting damage, irrespective of whether initial targets are hit, as businesses know they could be shut down at any moment at the slightest sight of an outbreak.”

Earlier this month, the Victorian government announced that it would extend the tougher stage four lockdown until October 26 at least.

The Bell Potter analysts, Steven Anastasiou and Damien Williamson, said the “elimination strategy” was “being led by a small group of academics” and had been “abandoned by almost the entire world”.

“It was an astounding decision which appears to have very limited basis in the data and the science,” they added.