Conquering of coronavirus ‘close’, says medical chief Paul Kelly

Australia’s health restrictions could ­remain in place for at least six months, despite nation being ‘on the cusp’ of COVID-19 dying out.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly in Canberra on Friday. Picture: AAP

Australia’s social-distancing rules and health restrictions could ­remain in place for at least six months, despite the country being “on the cusp” of COVID-19 dying out, amid warnings of a second wave of infections heading into winter.

Three months after Australia recorded its first coronavirus case, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said it was possible the ­deadly disease could “die out” in regions across Australia within weeks.

As infection rates across the country drop significantly and Australians stay indoors at the Easter weekend following Scott Morrison’s plea to “stay at home”, Professor Kelly said health authorities would confront new ­challenges when the disease was controlled.

He warned that it wasn’t the time for “us to be changing the rules in terms of social distancing” and said the NRL would require permission to restart the rugby league season as planned.

“At this stage, we’re only 14 weeks into this virus. If we were able to look at people that might have been exposed … or indeed were diagnosed with the virus and see whether they are immune now, that would be very short-term immunity still,” Professor Kelly said.

“In terms of the virus dying out in certain parts of Australia, that would be a great achievement. It does bring with it a challenge, of course — it would mean that most of us would not have been exposed yet, so we would remain susceptible to the virus if it was to be reintroduced (to an area).”

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the government would not lift social-distancing rules in the next six months, unless under advice from health authorities, in response to plans by the NRL to play matches as early as May 21 and pleas from business heavyweights to reopen the economy sooner. “Nobody would be more excited than us if restrictions could start to be lifted sooner … the only way that would happen is if the medical advice indicates to us that it is safe to do so,” he said. “If that (shutdowns) is no longer required based on expert medical advice, then of course we would be making relevant adjustments at this time. The sooner the better, again, of course. But we are not going to do this unless the advice is that it is safe to do so.”

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard and Professor Kelly urged rugby league chiefs to ­approach the recommencement of the NRL season with caution.

Mr Hazzard said the resumption of matches would need to be done in conjunction with medical advice. He revealed that the last time he had heard from NRL bosses was five weeks ago.

Across the globe, more than 1.5 million people have been infected with COVID-19, leading to 93,000 deaths. In Australia, widely viewed as one of the most successful countries in controlling the spread of COVID-19, infections have increased at a slower rate, with 6203 cases and 53 deaths, as at 3pm on Friday.

Infectious diseases physician and microbiologist Peter Collignon said while Australia would be likely to maintain low-level community transmission, the “real danger” would come in winter.

“When you look at the Spanish flu in Australia, there was a first wave, then a hiatus, then there was a second wave; that is the danger,” Professor Collignon said. “We’re going to have to continue to do what we were doing in March, which is keep pubs and clubs closed, close the borders at least until Oct­ober and maybe for longer.

“What we do now has to be measured because we’re going to have to do this for a long time.”

UNSW professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an infection control expert and adviser to the World Health Organisation’s COVID-19 preparedness group, said current coronavirus containment measures were designed to “buy time” so health officials could “flush out” COVID-19 clusters.

Leading epidemiologists said a concerted effort by state and territory governments to emulate South Korea’s pandemic model by targeting suspected COVID-19 hotspots was likely to produce a “spike” in cases “within weeks”.

“Australia is on the verge of turning a corner and we are starting to flatten the curve,” Professor McLaws said. “But as we go deeper into the community to test more people, there will be an increase in cases so we are actually just at the beginning.”

Professor McLaws said Australia needed to learn from the COVID-19 health response in South Korea.

“Korea has this long tail that is about 40 to 50 cases per day and that’s been going on for about a month now and they’re doing well,” she said. “Korea is a prime example of how difficult it is to remove cases from the community.”

Professor Kelly said the average number of people infected by one person remained a “key component of understanding the virus and how it spreads”.

“In different times during the epidemic, there have been quite high numbers and five would be a very disturbing number — that would be a large number and difficult to control,” he said.

“It has been as low as between one and two. That’s the fundamental component of the virus itself. Ideally, where you want to be is below one.

“So less than one other person being infected after a person ­themselves had the infection. Once you get to that point, the virus dies out.

“At the moment, we’re probably on the cusp of that in Australia. Whether that’s where we’re going to be in several weeks or months’ time remains to be seen.”

Professor Kelly attacked claims about cures for COVID-19, declaring there was no vaccine.

“To claim that there is a cure for this virus without being able to substantiate those claims is illegal in Australia,” he said.

Professor Collignon said Australia had been one of the most successful countries in the world in flattening the curve through testing, closing the borders and shutting “pubs, bars and places where people get together”.

“All of that has made a tremendous difference," he said.

“But while some people seem to be hoping that we’ll do this and the virus will disappear, I don’t think that’s realistic.

“It’s not what’s happened in Korea, it’s not what’s happened in Singapore.”

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said ­second-wave epidemics recorded in South Korea, Singapore and Japan had been driven by local transmission, whereas in Australia, the number of cases acquired locally was not markedly increasing.

In NSW, there was an average increase in locally acquired cases of only a little over 10 infections a day during the past week.

“The reason that the curve kicked up again in Singapore was because of local transmission,” Professor Blakely said.

“We don’t see evidence of that taking off at this point in Australia. That suggests to me that we are doing an extremely good job of stopping the spread because it’s the locally acquired transmission now that matters more than the imported cases.”

Additional reporting: Kieran Gair