Coalition’s climate change war reaches red-hot intensity

Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison in question time in August. Picture: Gary Ramage

Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce have entered the final throes of the internal contest over whether the Coalition should embrace a net zero emissions by 2050 target.

Both understand the long-term emissions reduction strategy – the centrepiece of their climate change election policy – must strike a balance in protecting votes in city and bush electorates.

The stakes are high. After years of watching Labor and Coalition leaders writhing in an emissions vortex, Morrison is walking the climate tightrope.

Months out from the election, he and Joyce face unprecedented pressure from international and domestic forces to deliver more ambitious climate change targets before next month’s COP26 summit in Glasgow.

The Nationals partyroom is split 50-50 on adopting a net zero emissions policy, with sources claiming it had become a “proxy leadership contest” between Joyce and Michael McCormack.

Queensland LNP MPs are concerned about bleeding votes to minor parties, as Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and Bob Katter seize on pandemic frustrations with the Coalition and Labor.

An LNP MP said the influence of minor parties in central and north Queensland must not be ignored, warning voters were “on the cliff”.

“They’re already angry about Covid and net zero will push them over the edge. It is playing with fire. We won’t pick up votes on it, we’ll lose votes,” the MP said.

The agriculture and resources sectors – economic bedrocks of regional Australia – are also concerned about what accelerated emissions targets mean for them.

AgForce chief executive Michael Guerin said the ag-sector would not be “trampled on again” and would not accept “another imposition of punitive measures via legislation and be left with all the costs and burden alone again like it was after Kyoto”.

The Nationals have put forward a list of demands, most of which will be met, but some that won’t be. Morrison must also service demands from city-based Liberal MPs pushing for stronger emissions targets.

If the Coalition’s climate change dilemma is resolved this month, pressure will build on Anthony Albanese to release Labor’s medium-term targets and how he will achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Morrison’s transition to a new energy economy will be anchored by his “technology not taxes” mantra, and reveal significant improvement in Australia’s medium- and long-term emissions projections and a pathway to net zero emissions.