Game on as poll race tightens

The Coalition continues to close the gap on Labor, with minor-party preferences now poised to play a critical role.

Labor leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Scott Morrison will debate each other in Perth later today as the latest Newspoll shows the race is tightening.

The federal election race is tightening as the Coalition continues to close the gap on Labor, with minor-party preferences now poised to play a critical role in the outcome.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian with three weeks to polling day shows the ­Coalition improving its position by a point to now trail Labor 49-51 on a two-party-preferred vote.

It is the best result for the government under Scott Morrison’s leadership, but would still result in defeat and a loss of between six and 10 seats after taking into ­account last year’s electoral boundary changes.

However, both major parties have lost popular support as Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party locks in 5 per cent of the primary vote nationally to emerge as the leading minor party after the Greens.

Despite the narrowing contest, Bill Shorten recorded his best personal ratings in four years as both leaders prepare to face each other tonight in Perth in the first debate of the campaign.

Yesterday they attended party rallies, with the Labor leader ­announcing a further $6 billion of spending promises.

Mr Shorten yesterday unveiled plans to increase the wages of early education workers, provide free dental care to pensioners and pump $4bn in additional subsidies into the childcare sector in his first major policy announcement of the election campaign.

Speaking at a rally of 500 volunteers at the Box Hill Town Hall in Melbourne, Mr Shorten sought to reset his campaign after a number of stumbles in the first two weeks by putting pay equity at the centre of his leadership bid.

The push by Labor to seize back control over the policy agenda with pre-poll voting opening today came as Mr Morrison ­attended a US-style campaign rally in the multicultural seat of Reid in Sydney along with John Howard and NSW Premier ­Gladys Berejiklian.

Mr Morrison attempted to drag immigration back into the ­national debate with a pledge not to lift the number of refugees coming to Australia from 18,750. He promised to take in a greater number of women in need.

The Coalition will also ­announce today $156 million to protect Australians from the risk of cyber attack as the government seeks to elevate national security as an election issue.

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See the full Newspoll tables here

The latest Newspoll of 2136 voters surveyed between April 26 and April 28 nationally has confirmed a tightening in the contest since the April 2 budget.

It marks a six-point turnaround for the Coalition since March 7 when it trailed 46-54.

The two-party-preferred vote has been calculated using an ­assumed 60-40 per cent preference flow from the UAP in the ­latest poll. The split at the 2013 election was 54-46 in favour of ­Coalition candidates, when Mr Palmer’s Palmer United Party ­secured a similar primary vote.

However, Newspoll has calculated a higher flow back to the Liberal and LNP parties in this election, with a UAP preference deal now being struck with the Liberal, LNP and National parties.

Of concern to both major parties will be an apparent return to Labor and the Coalition just two weeks ago has been reversed.

The Coalition’s primary vote fell from 39 per cent to 38 per cent in the past two weeks. Labor’s has fallen two points to 37 per cent over the same period.

The decline in popular support for the Coalition and Labor has come as support for Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party grows.

The UAP has now supplanted One Nation to emerge as the leading minor party after the Greens on the back of a $50m advertising campaign that will ultimately rival the spend of the major parties.

A month ago, UAP was polling at just 2 per cent. In the latest poll it has secured 5 per cent of the primary vote and now leads One ­Nation on 4 per cent, while the Greens remain on 9 per cent, with “other” minor parties and independents on 7 per cent.

Mr Shorten, who has suffered for most of his leadership with low personal ratings, has recorded his highest approval rating since March 2015, with 39 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance marking a two-point rise on the last poll. Despite Mr Shorten’s apparent shaky start to the campaign, he has only ever recorded a satisfaction rating higher than 39 per cent on three occasions since being elected leader in 2013.

He has also narrowed the gap as preferred prime minister, lifting his numbers two points to 37 per cent compared with a one-point drop to 45 per cent for Mr Morrison.

While still in negative territory with a net disapproval rating of minus 12, the improvement for Mr Shorten suggests voters are coming around to the idea of Mr Shorten possibly being the next prime minister.