Game on: Morrison’s budget bounce

Coalition moves to within striking distance of Labor with surge in support following budget.

Scott Morrison in Sydney for the first round of the rugby Shute Shield. Picture: The Sunday Telegraph

The Coalition has moved to within striking distance of Labor with a surge in support following last week’s budget, giving Scott Morrison momentum as he prepares to call a May election.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition’s primary vote has ­jumped ahead of Labor’s for the first time since Mr Morrison ­became Prime Minister.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Bill Shorten’s opposition still holds an election-winning lead, 52 to 48 points, but the Coalition has engineered a four-point turnaround since last month.

The poll also found voters ranked Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s budget as the best in a ­decade and the most likely to ­deliver an improvement to their personal financial circumstances since the 2007 Howard government’s cash splash on pensioners and families.

With the budget promising $302 billion in personal income tax cuts and forecasting a return to surplus next year, the number of people who rated it as “extremely good” was the highest since Newspoll started tracking the question in 1999.

On a net satisfaction basis — the difference between those who rated the budget good and bad — the budget received the strongest positive endorsement since 2008.

The Prime Minister’s approval ratings also reached the highest levels of the year, a boost only days before he is expected to call the election, most likely for May 18.

The poll found the Coalition has lifted its primary vote from 36 to 38 percentage points, while Labor has fallen from 39 to 37. One Nation also dropped a point.

The Coalition’s primary vote has not been ahead of Labor’s since last August, just before ­Malcolm Turnbull was replaced as leader by Mr Morrison.

In signs of concern for Labor, the party’s primary vote is the party’s worst result since July last year.

It comes in the wake of a swing against Labor in NSW at last month’s state election where its primary vote fell to 33 per cent ­following an anti-Asian immigration scandal that enveloped its leader Michael Daley.

Mr Shorten has also been on the back foot this past week over his plans to get 50 per cent of Australians out of petrol and diesel-­fuelled cars and into electric vehicles by 2030.

Mr Shorten’s promise of matching the first phases of the Coalition’s income tax cuts in his budget-reply speech and the offer of major reforms to Medicare, with its $2.3bn cancer care package, have yet to resonate with voters.

Mr Morrison, however, still faces the prospect of losing 10 seats if the numbers are repeated at the election and are uniform across electorates.

But this compares with the last poll, which pointed to the potential loss of 19 seats.

Labor’s primary vote, while still 2.3 percentage up on its 2016 election result of 34.7 per cent, is down five points on its post-election high of 42 per cent recorded last September.

One Nation’s one-point primary vote drop to six percentage points came after the party was mired in a rolling scandal over claims a senior staffer had sought to solicit $20 million from the powerful US gun lobby, the ­National Rifle Association, in ­exchange for trying to water down Australian gun laws.

With Liberal and Labor party campaign teams now at the ready, both leaders were yesterday in ­virtual election mode.

Mr Morrison was in western Sydney yesterday unveiling a local infrastructure project. He said he would not act with “haste” in calling the election.

“The election will be called in April, and the election will be held in May,’’ he said.

“We’re not doing this with if any haste and we’re not doing it with any delay.

“There have always been three dates — 11, 18 and 25.

“I noticed Bill Shorten’s ­impatience yesterday.

“That impatience is born of ­arrogance. He believes he should have this election already and he believes he’s already won it.

“He assuming of the Australian people their support, I assume nothing when it comes to that.”

Mr Shorten, who was visiting Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne, announced further policy measures for childhood cancer and accused Mr Morrison of deliberately delaying the poll.

“That’s why they’re buying time, so they can spend some more of Australians’ money,’’ he said. “If they have money in Treasury, they should be spending it on services for kids with cancer. Wouldn’t it be good if Mr Morrison said: ‘I’ll let you know in the fullness of time and have the election but I’ll not spend another cent on TV advertising’, and all the money he will spend pumping up his own tyres.

“This election will be about one proposition for me: do you want better healthcare, better hospitals, better treatment of out-of-pocket costs of fighting cancer, or bigger tax loopholes and more scare campaigns?”

Mr Morrison’s approval ratings have lifted two points to 45 per cent, with disapproval falling two points to 43 giving him a net positive rating of plus two. This is his equal-best position since taking the leadership.

Mr Shorten, despite also gaining a point to 37 per cent satisfaction level, remains in negative territory on minus 14.

Mr Morrison lifted a point as preferred prime minister to 46 per cent and now leads Mr Shorten by 11 points after the Opposition Leader went back a point.

The Greens’ vote remained at 9 per cent, unchanged since the ­beginning of the year.

The Newspoll was conducted between Thursday and yesterday, which followed the federal budget on Tuesday 2 but also surveyed for two full days following Mr Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech on Thursday.

The poll surveyed 1799 voters in all states, and in city and country areas.

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