Coalition exposed in parliament if Barnaby Joyce put on ice

If the High Court today declares invalid the election of the ‘citizenship seven’ the government will lose its majority.

Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce. Picture: Kym Smith

If the High Court today declares invalid the election of the “citizenship seven”, including Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, the government will immediately lose its working one-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

The political fate of Mr Joyce and the six senators, whose election has been challenged under section 44 of the Constitution on the grounds they are dual citizens, will be revealed at 2.15pm.

If Mr Joyce is disqualified for being a New Zealand dual national at the time of last year’s election, the government will be in a precarious position when parliament resumes on November 27.

A writ for a by-election in Mr Joyce’s NSW seat of New England would be issued by the Speaker, Liberal MP Tony Smith, who would also determine the date.

The government is preparing for a December 2 by-election, which would allow for the obligatory minimum 33-day campaign.

This means for at least the last two sitting weeks of the year, the government will be vulnerable in the lower house because it will have lost its majority.

If all five crossbenchers voted with Labor on specific measures, producing a 74-74 result, the government would have to rely on the casting vote of the Speaker.

The government would have to impose strict discipline and ensure all of its MPs were in the house for every vote or it could face defeat. This could include a challenge on measures such as a banking royal commission, which all five crossbenchers support.

Nationals Senate leader Nigel Scullion is expected to take over Mr Joyce’s leadership role of the Nationals in parliament on an acting basis in the event he and ­Nationals deputy leader Fiona Nash, a NSW senator, are found ineligible to sit in parliament.

University of NSW dean of law George Williams said it was unlikely Mr Joyce would be able to remain a minister during any by-election campaign.

Section 64 of the Constitution allows for a minister to hold office for no longer than three months “after the first general election” without being an MP. Professor Williams said although there had never been a High Court ruling on the section, he believed the three-month period would apply from the time of the last election, which was July 2, last year.

In the Senate, former Nationals cabinet minister Matthew Canavan, crossbenchers Nick Xenophon and Malcolm Roberts and Greens senators Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam have also been caught by the citizenship fiasco.

If the High Court rules that all six senators are disqualified it is likely to direct the vacancies are filled by a special count of votes cast at the 2016 election.

Additional reporting: Rosie Lewis