China talks the talk but climate deal hopes fade

CHINA has stepped up its carbon-cuts diplomacy in Durban but the prospects of a global deal appear to be as far away as ever.

CHINA has stepped up its carbon-cuts diplomacy in Durban but as government leaders arrive for the final week of negotiations the prospects of a global deal to combat climate change appear to be as far away as ever.

Draft texts wrapping up the first week of talks at the UN conference show little progress was made on the key issues -- including the future of the Kyoto Protocol and a binding carbon treaty.

The world's three big emitters, China, the US and India, have all dashed hopes of speedy progress on an international agreement with binding targets.

Without some progress, it is likely the Kyoto agreement will crash and developing nations may even walk away from gains that have been made in other areas, including new funding for projects in the developing world.

China, the world's biggest carbon emitter, appeared to hold out the prospect that it would accept binding emissions targets. Lead negotiator Su Wei told Reuters: "We do not rule out the possibility of legally binding. It is possible for us, but it depends on the negotiations."

But other countries and leading non-government groups said China's offer was highly conditional. It would not take effect until after 2020 and was linked to the state of its economy at the time and actions taken by other countries. The US says it will not consider any deal that excludes binding targets for China and India. And India says it will not accept legally binding targets, full stop.

Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy with Union of Concerned Scientists, said India was "a lot more hardcore".

"They are saying they are not even willing to start a process here that would lead to a legally binding negotiation," he said.

"India and the US have concerns about legally binding targets for precisely opposite reasons. The US wants India and China bound (by targets) and India does not want to be bound. It is almost a marriage of convenience. They can both exert pressure from different ends."

A draft statement on negotiations for the future of Kyoto, issued on Saturday, said amendment and ratification of a second commitment period before 2013 were impossible at this point.

Several options were still on the table. There could be a two-stage process involving a decision and a package of amendments agreed at Durban with ratification coming later and linked to progress on a broader international agreement.

There could be a decision on Kyoto without any amendments. Or a declaration to keep talking, the weakest option considered unacceptable to many countries.

"We really are at a fork in the road and countries have to decide: do we go the voluntary route or do we stay in a legally binding rules-based system?" Mr Meyer said.

"Even the EU is only going to stay in Kyoto if it is part of an agreement that this is a transition to something broader that includes US, China and other countries."