China ‘not hell-bent on global rule’, says Gareth Evans

Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans cautions that China is not ‘hell-bent on some kind of global domination’.

Former foreign minister Gareth Evans. Picture: AAP

Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans says “things could go very badly wrong over ­Taiwan” but cautions that China is not “hell-bent on some kind of global domination”.

Amid strident rhetoric on China from senior Morrison government figures, including warnings of the threat of war, Professor Evans urged Australian policymakers to avoid ­“excessive zeal” in their comments on China.

“Partly it’s a matter of not digging any further holes when you’re in one and being very, very cautious about adding to the pile of things that, you know, Beijing has found it difficult to live with,” he told an Asialink podcast.

He said tensions with China over Taiwan could spiral out of control “because that’s something where China manifestly has a huge degree of emotional engagement”.

“It’s an issue where the West will find it difficult not to be drawn into defence of Taiwan if there is a physical assault made upon it,” he said. “I don’t think anyone thinks there’s advantage to be derived from this thing, ­including on the Chinese side.

“I think the only way forward on Taiwan for Western policymakers is delicate ambiguity, which has characterised policy for decades now.”

Professor Evans, who served as Australia’s top diplomat from 1988 to 1996, said China wanted “to assert its global role and certainly be far more of a rule-maker than a rule-taker”, but it was not “hell-bent on some kind of global domination”.

He said the days were gone when the US could confidently believe it would win anything short of an all-out war with China, but the economic inter­dependence between China and the West, and “the sheer unmitigated horror and misery”, meant a serious conflict with China was unlikely.

Ultimately, the US would win a major conflict with China “but my God, at what cost?”

Professor Evans advised the government to be cautious of ­advice from national security agencies, saying “all that stuff has to be very contested and contestable if you’re going to get good policy”. He called for Australia to be more self-reliant and seek “a better bang for each buck” in its ­defence spending.

Australia should also be careful to avoid “excessive dependence” on the US, and not “follow the US down every rabbit hole it wants us to engage in”, he said.

“I mean, America is always going to follow its own interests — whether it’s there for us militarily if some catastrophe does erupt in a region is going to ­depend entirely on America’s ­assessment of its own interests … we just have to be wide awake to that,” Professor Evans said.