Bridget McKenzie affair flesh wound not fatal for Scott Morrison

The alleged sports-rort affair is unquestionably damaging for the Morrison government and an ­already wounded Scott Morrison, but it is far from catastrophic.

The Prime Minister will be expecting an adverse finding from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet early next week.

There are very few in the government who believe there could be any other outcome, which means Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie will be gone from cabinet as early as Monday.

The hope is for the caravan to move on quickly, just as it did after Malcolm Turnbull lost Sussan Ley in the summer of 2017 for a breach of expense entitlements and Jamie Briggs and Mal Brough in the summer of 2015 for matters somewhat more lurid.

But this is not assured.

The most immediate issue for Morrison is his address to the ­National Press Club next week, which will outline the government’s agenda for the year.

This is a critical speech for Morrison, with the likelihood it will include a positioning statement on climate change. That message will be quickly lost if he is still dealing with questions over McKenzie and her future.

And it won’t end there.

The reshuffle inside the Na­t­ionals won’t be formalised until the partyroom meets, which means more red meat for Labor when parliament resumes in the first week of February. It can be assured Labor will use Senate estimates hearings in the first week of March to draw it out further.

Morrison can’t be accused of mishandling the latest predicament. He has given himself plenty of wriggle room and has moved with deliberate caution by adopting due process.

Nationals leader Michael ­McCormack, on the other hand, has been left looking impotent in his failure to convince McKenzie to go already.

Morrison earned the respect of his partyroom long ago by putting his own neck on the line for his MPs and ministers.

It has become a hallmark of his leadership. He backed Gladys Liu in the face of immense political pressure over her alleged Chinese government connections.

He has done the same more ­recently with Energy Minister Angus Taylor, despite Labor’s call for his scalp.

To have acted rashly in the case of McKenzie could have easily signalled a sense of panic in the wake of the drubbing he ­received over his handling of the bushfire crisis. It would have also risked ­undermining the Coalition agreement.

Those in the government less inclined to hysterical prophecies may suggest Morrison has been fortunate enough to have had his first “glitch for the mission” early on in the term of the new government.

There is, however, a broader concern. Does this bring into question Morrison’s promise of stability of government after the decade of chaos?

Will the electorate regard it as a return to politics as usual?

One thing is certain in all of this: it will be the last thing on the Prime Minister’s mind this ­weekend as he mourns the death of his father, to whom he was very close.