‘Bolshie’ Victoria risks Coalition’s federal majority

Victorian Liberal Party members are angry at ‘a lack of membership involvement’ in selecting federal candidates.

Kevin Andrews’s preselection contest is due in the middle of March. Picture: AAP

The Victorian Liberal Party organisation is creating turmoil and defying its federal leadership and MPs over the prospect of electoral redistribution that could reduce the Morrison government to a minority going into the next election.

For more than three months, the state organisation has insisted all sitting federal MPs be open to challenge for their seats, just nine months since the last election, out of step with all other states and before a potential redistribution.

Victorian Liberal Party members are angry at what they see as a lack of membership involvement over several years in selecting federal candidates.

Federal Liberals believe rapidly changing population figures in Melbourne could force the creation of another Victorian seat at the election due in 2022 and push the Morrison government to an effective minority on the new boundaries.

At the last election, Labor picked up two Victorian seats that became notionally ALP, Dunkley and Corangamite, after a redistribution created the new seat of Fraser in Melbourne, also won by the ALP.

Liberals fear any new seat would be added in a Labor-voting area and the Coalition would lose a seat in regional Victoria.

The federal Liberals have been convinced by a federal Parliamentary Library report that predicts redistributions in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Victoria before the next election, triggered by the number of people allowed in each federal electorate.

The report suggests WA could lose a seat and Victoria gain a seat.

It also said the NT could be reduced to one seat from two but warned that previous attempts to cut a seat in the north had been blocked.

The Victorian state Liberal council started preselections for seats early in 2020 against the wishes of the senior Victorian federal minister and Deputy Liberal Party leader Josh Frydenberg, the federal president, Nick Greiner, and the federal director, Andrew Hirst.

An overwhelming majority of federal Victorian MPs and senators have also opposed the early preselections.

So far, the only challenge is against the longest-serving ­Victorian MP, father of the house and former Howard and Abbott ­government minister, Kevin ­Andrews.

Mr Andrews, a conservative, is under threat from moderate ­forces within the Liberal Party in Victoria.

Mr Andrews’s preselection contest is due in the middle of March before changes on the State Council are due in May.

The federal Treasurer has had several meetings with the Victorian organisation’s leaders seeking a delay in the preselection until the other states also hold preselections and the prospect of any redistribution is settled.

If preselections are held in Victoria and a redistribution is ordered, there will have to be another round of preselections closer to the election.

The Australian Electoral Commission does not make a final ­decision on redistributions until at least a year after the previous ­election.