Bligh did not heed lesson from west

TODAY is the last Saturday in February, making it the last realistic date former West Australian premier Alan Carpenter could have waited before calling an election.

Just like Queensland Premier Anna Bligh did on Monday, Carpenter decided to go to the polls early, in September last year.

Labor went on to lose government by the narrowest of margins, as Liberal leader Colin Barnett formed a minority government with the help of the Nationals and two independents.

The latest opinion poll in Queensland, showing the Liberal National Party back level, suggests Bligh might have started something she now wishes she hadn't.

It is hard not to think that the West Australian result would have been markedly different had Carpenter waited until now to seek the public's judgment.

With the onset of the global financial crisis, voters would have been more likely to stick with the incumbents rather than risk voting for a Liberal Party that had been tearing itself apart throughout its time in opposition.

Calling an election in the middle of economic turmoil should help Bligh scrape home at the March 21 election despite cynically going to the polls early, but it will be a close-run thing.

The biggest threat to Bligh becoming Australia's first elected female premier is a quirk in the Queensland electoral laws, its non-compulsory preferencing system for voting.

Traditionally, Labor has used this system to prevent Liberal and Nationals preferences flowing between the parties.

With a newly merged LNP that is no longer an issue for the conservative side of politics.

But it could be an issue for the Queensland Premier if Greens voters choose not to send preferences Labor's way.

In a close election, that will be something ALP strategists should keep an eye on.