Billions for HomeKeeper – now that’s one expensive limo ride

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian looks on as Scott Morrison speaks during a press conference at Kirribilli House in Sydney on Tuesday. Picture: Getty Images

From little things big things grow, from little slips big costs flow.

That’s proving to be the soundtrack to the pandemic, as Canberra chips in at least $5bn to support the nation’s economic powerhouse through a lockdown that began from a single lapse in quarantine.

That’s one expensive limo ride, not even accounting for the toll in lives interrupted and made miserable.

The emergency relief aims to keep people in NSW indoors and provide furloughed citizens with “peace of mind” as the Delta strain roams.

Call it HomeKeeper, the cost of paying people to “respect the rules we put in place”, after NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian neglected to write them in ink over the school holidays.

The fiscal package to help workers and businesses will become the baseline for further government support in this phase of the pandemic, certainly until vaccination coverage rates improve and the current definition of “hotspot” remains.

Will this development give premiers an incentive to pull the trigger on lockdowns later, knowing there’s an income support safety net if things get out of hand?

Or will it make state and territory leaders grind out the game towards elimination once a lockdown is in place?

We’re about to find out what the new fiscal-epidemiological continuum is in our federation.

Berejiklian says this new assistance “will ensure we get through the lockdown and come out stronger on the other side”.

That’s hope with a $9bn price tag

For businesses to qualify for help, they’ll need to make sure their employee headcount remains the same. This will bind workers to their bosses in a more meaningful way than Zoom catch-ups and “stay strong” emails, important as those are proving in today’s disjointed work culture.

Of course, this obligation means the snap back, when lockdown ends, will be faster and the loss in activity smaller than it would otherwise have been, and that’s in the interests of all ­Australians.

The locked-down area, which extends beyond metropolitan Sydney to the central coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Shellharbour, accounts for 80 per cent of the NSW economy and one-quarter of the national economy. NSW Treasury estimates the current three-week lockdown will cost $2.5bn in lost output. If the lockdown goes for eight weeks, that’s a hit of $6.7bn, or 1.3 per cent of national GDP this quarter.

ANZ bank economists believe the damage won’t be that severe, “given that economic activity has become more resilient to lockdowns and activity should rebound quickly once restrictions ease”.

They estimate federal and state income and cashflow support, payroll tax deferrals, aid for tenants and small business grants will limit the hit to GDP to 0.6 per cent.

“Though these policies in combination are not as generous as JobKeeper, we think they will help ensure job losses are kept to a minimum in the near-term, which should allow any declines in GDP through the lockdown period to be quickly recovered once restrictions are lifted,” ANZ’s Felicity Emmett, Hayden Dimes and David Plank wrote on Tuesday.

Scott Morrison’s bail-out was as inevitable as a longer lockdown, given the low rate of vaccinations in NSW, despite the state’s stellar performance in its hubs, where supplies are being fully utilised. More please.

Beyond this glitch, NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet maintains “ultimately, we will have to learn to live alongside the virus”.

From little jabs, nations grow.