Battle to stem the tide

Asylum-seekers

A STRANGE fate has befallen the Labor Party on boat arrivals - government policy is now a shambles, with arrivals at a record high, yet the ALP national conference has voted for a new and firm offshore processing policy that means better border security down the track.

The refugee debate last weekend saw a defeat of the Labor Left and of Labor for Refugees in their bid to halt the Immigration Minister Chris Bowen from inserting into the ALP platform unequivocal support for offshore processing in the context of regional solutions to boat arrivals.

Bowen's victory, overshadowed by the gay marriage and uranium export debates, is a landmark in Labor policy and ideology. The tragedy for Labor is that it has no immediate impact.

Within the engine room of government Labor is implementing a sustained softening of asylum-seeker policy that will only encourage more boats. This is not Julia Gillard's or Bowen's choice. It arises because of Labor's failure to persuade the High Court and the parliament to accept its preferred policy. But unless the numbers diminish - and there is no such sign - the prospects for any 2012 political revival of Gillard Labor seems remote.

When it comes to boats Australia is mired in a crisis of governance with no respite in sight. Effective border security for Australia has collapsed. Gillard and Bowen have been bereft of any meaningful disincentives since the Malaysian policy was deadlocked in the parliament, throttled by Tony Abbott's irresponsible refusal to pass the legislation.

This looms as one of the worst failures of the national parliament in decades. It has a bill to sanction the principle of offshore processing, as backed by Labor and Coalition, yet the bill cannot pass. Australia is now exposed to an unwarranted and undesirable number of boat arrivals that cannot be dismissed as a small problem or insignificant issue.

More than 900 asylum-seekers arrived by boat in November, the highest monthly figure since Labor took office in 2007. It is higher than the "600 a month" warning from Immigration Department chief Andrew Metcalfe in the context of the failure to implement the Malaysian policy.

Shadow minister Scott Morrison said this week that under four years of Labor 266 boats had arrived carrying 14,171 people. This eclipsed 11 years of Howard government that saw a total of 13,647 arrivals. At present the numbers need to be updated each two to three days. "The number of boats arriving is overwhelming Labor's community release of illegal arrivals which will once again build pressure on our already stretched immigration detention network," Morrison said.

The risk is these high levels of boat arrivals will be sustained because of both push and pull factors. This week Afghanistan expert William Maley warned that rising sectarian violence was likely to mean more Hazara boatpeople making the journey. "Push factors are likely to mount in Afghanistan," he said. This is against the backdrop of a significant domestic policy softening guaranteed to bring pull factors more into the equation.

Gillard doesn't even pretend to deny this. Just the opposite. She had repeatedly predicted more boat arrivals and vests the blame on Abbott. In October Gillard admitted her Malaysian legislation would not pass and Labor decided to allow more asylum-seekers to live in the community on bridging visas while their claims were being processed.

A fortnight ago Labor announced the end of tougher processing rights for boat arrivals compared with air arrivals. They will now be treated the same way. This is further recognition of the failure to secure the Malaysian policy and constitutes a decisive shift to pre-Tampa policies. It recognises the futility of keeping people in detention for long periods.

It signals however that Australia, because of parliamentary and judicial decisions, has broken from the harsh policy framework of the Howard era. The entire people-smuggling industry knows this. The truth is that because the boats are increasing and it cannot stem the tide, Labor has been driven to modify processing and detention for boat arrivals.

Morrison has set the scene for a fierce battle over boat arrivals next year. He accuses Gillard of abolishing "the last brick in John Howard's wall". The Abbott-Morrison line is that Labor has buckled to the Greens on asylum-seekers, gay marriage and the carbon tax. This pitch is guaranteed traction. It is, however, the peak of hypocrisy on asylum-seekers where it is the Coalition that sank Gillard's tough line.

Morrison says: "The changes allow those who arrive illegally by boat to be released into the community with work rights, government payments, health services and endless taxpayer-funded appeals through our courts, regardless of whether they are refugees."

You can agree or disagree with Morrison. There is, however, no denying that the Australian public has a completely valid expectation that the national government will maintain border security. A government that cannot over time maintain border security forfeits its claim to office. Once the public focuses on this issue the consequences next year will be ferocious.

Bowen, an impressive mixture as Immigration Minister, knows this. Bowen is a detention system reformer seeking a more humane way and a strong border protectionist exploring new options with the region to stop the boats. He has the right framework. The question is: can he succeed?

At the ALP national conference Bowen was able to incorporate his framework as the new party platform.

He was supported admirably on the floor by Home Affairs Minister Brendan O'Connor who, as minister in charge of policing the borders, seconded Bowen's policy and delivered one of the best speeches of the conference. It should be compulsory reading for every ALP member.

The Bowen-O'Connor stand constitutes a new Labor political settlement on refugee policy after the wild gyrations under the Rudd and Gillard governments. The core idea is that border security and a humane asylum-seeker policy go together; this is a frontal assault on the Left, the refugee lobby and the grand delusion that being humane means letting the boats come and keep coming. Bowen refuses to tolerate this mantra.

Speaking to the party, O'Connor said: "I want to make it very clear that people-smugglers are not modern day Oskar Schindlers. I do not accept that. Nothing could be further from the truth. The organisers and facilitators take their money, take their life savings, sometimes they take their lives.

"In my role as Minister for Home Affairs I have been exposed to the base motives of these criminals and I can assure delegates there is no humanitarian or altruistic dimension behind their dealings. They are part of transnational criminal enterprises that include human trafficking, modern-day equivalent of slavery, and they seek to profit from the misery of others. I am utterly convinced, delegates, that an increase in such maritime passage will amount to further maritime disasters just as we have seen in the past."

O'Connor listed each known disaster and the loss of life, from SIEV X in 2001 to the deaths of about 50 people at Christmas Island in December 2010. Government figures estimate as many as 4 per cent of those who attempt such boat journeys are lost.

Speaking of the Christmas Island disaster, O'Connor said: "Anyone who does not believe in the need for a deterrence, I say, is taking a very limited view of humanitarianism. In the last two days we have had four vessels and over 300 people arrive in this manner. This is an untenable position. We can have effective border protection and be humane."

The lie about border protection is that its only rationale is to fan xenophobia and win votes. It was the Left's article of faith about Howard. Was Howard keen on winning the votes? Yes. Did he believe in border protection as a policy? Yes. So did Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke. So does Gillard.

It is increasingly untenable to argue against an Australian government obligation to seek to stop the boats. The Bowen-O'Connor argument aims to recast Labor's conscience and its moral outlook on this issue.

They won't convert their internal opponents. It is clear, however, that sentiment is changing within the party.

None of this, of course, overlooks the pressing national interest reason for stopping the boats based on the principle of maximising government control of people movement to this country, a principle upheld by every prime minister without exception.

Bowen is explicit about creating a nexus between border protection and humanitarianism. His policy involves an aspirational increase in the refugee and humanitarian intake to 20,000 on the condition that boat arrivals are reduced.

This reflects the deal at the heart of his bilateral agreement with Malaysia - in return for offshore processing Australia will take more offshore refugees from Malaysia. That is, Labor sees tough border security promoting a higher offshore refugee intake.

This is now official ALP policy. It is unambiguous. The policy says Labor will work with the region to stop the boats seeking both regional and bilateral agreements. It is a new political compact and a new moral compact.

It is guaranteed to be contentious because the Malaysian agreement is so contentious and will be resisted by its Labor opponents to the end. The principles, however, are likely to endure as the basis for Labor's approach to regional deals. That makes the new policy a milestone.

It does not, however, solve the unfolding crisis: the boats are coming in greater numbers and constitute a threat to Labor's credentials and survival.