‘Back US on Taiwan or lose ANZUS’, says Paul Dibb

Paul Dibb has warned that Australia would risk losing the ANZUS alliance if it failed to back America in a confrontation with China over Taiwan.

Former defence and intelligence chief Paul Dibb.

Former defence and intelligence chief Paul Dibb has warned that Australia would risk losing US protection under the ANZUS alliance if it failed to back America in a confrontation with China over Taiwan.

In an opinion piece in The Australian on Tuesday, Professor Dibb says the US would almost certainly defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack because its Asia-Pacific alliances would collapse if it stood by.

If Australia failed to follow, “this might risk the very existence of the ANZUS alliance”, he writes.

The former head of Defence intelligence says Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear that retaking Taiwan “would be the crowning achievement in his vision to restore China’s place as a great power”.

He says the question now is whether Mr Xi will come under pressure this year to invade Taiwan to counter rising domestic tensions and the fallout from COVID-19.

Australia should not underestimate the importance the US puts in defending Taiwan in the event of a conflict, Professor Dibb says.

“My view is quite simple: in the event of an unprovoked Chinese attack, if the US does not come to the defence of Taiwan then that will mark the end of the American alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region.

“If America does defend Taiwan and Australia refuses to make a military contribution, that may well threaten the very raison d’etre for ANZUS.”

Taiwan was a central topic of discussion at last week’s ­AUSMIN talks in Washington, where both Australia and the US declared “recent events only strengthened their resolve to support Taiwan”.

ANU’s National Security College head Rory Medcalf said Australia would have little choice over being drawn into a conflict over Taiwan on the American side.

“The fact is, through the intelligence and defence relationship with America, we are already locked into a US-led effort to deter China from taking foolish action, and to defend Taiwan if deterrence failed,” he said.