Back to the future with Lawrence Springborg a likelihood

WHO will lead Queensland's Liberal National Party if it wins the state election and Campbell Newman loses his bid for Ashgrove?

IF not Campbell Newman, who will lead Queensland's Liberal National Party should it win the state election and he lose his armwrestle in Ashgrove with Labor incumbent Kate Jones?

The risk for the conservatives has been apparent since Mr Newman announced a year ago that he was tossing in his job at Brisbane City Hall to become leader of the LNP - from outside parliament - and would tie up the loose ends by taking out Ms Jones in Ashgrove and Premier Anna Bligh at the election.

Mr Newman's gamble was brought into sharp relief by the weekend Galaxy poll in The Courier-Mail showing Ms Jones had pulled ahead of him by 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent on the two-party-preferred vote. In primary terms, they were neck and neck on 45 per cent.

With her margin of 7.1 per cent - which ordinarily would class the inner western Brisbane seat as moderately safe for Labor, a high profile and two terms under her belt, Ms Jones was always going to be tough to beat.

A Newspoll last July found that 70 per cent of local voters were happy with the job she did for them as MP, and slightly more thought she would continue to be better in it than Mr Newman. But, at that time, Mr Newman was on track to win Ashgrove outright on a primary vote of 50 per cent with no need to go to preferences.

Mr Newman was adamant yesterday that his message would cut through to local voters: if they wanted to change the government they had to first change their local MP. And, privately, LNP insiders say the party's polling in Ashgrove is better for its man than the published ones indicate.

However, Mr Newman has said repeatedly that there is no "plan B" for him should he lose Ashgrove and the LNP win overall. He deserves to be taken at his word. Speculation that the LNP would try to lean on another MP to stand aside for him is simply fanciful.

So, who does that leave?

Mr Newman's deputy, Jeff Seeney, a former state National Party leader who has been warming the seat for him in parliament as official Opposition Leader, has already ruled himself out of becoming leader. Let's also accept that at face value.

The man Mr Seeney replaced in the top job in 2006, Lawrence Springborg, must be in the calculations to take over.

He entered parliament as a 21-year-old in 1989, took the leadership back from Mr Seeney before the 2009 state election and led the conservatives to a fifth successive defeat, at the hands of Ms Bligh.

Mr Springborg was deputy to Gold Coaster John-Paul Langbroek until Mr Newman staged his extra-parliamentary coup. Since then, he has cooled his heels on the backbench.

But he is a proven performer and was an architect of the merger between the at-time warring Nationals and Liberal Party to create the LNP. What's more, Mr Springborg is one of the few conservatives in parliament who has hand-on experience governing, as part of the ministry of the Borbidge government before it lost office in 1998.

The other leading contender is LNP treasury spokesman Tim Nicholls. Pointedly, he has not followed Mr Seeney's lead and put himself out of contention.

However, he lacks a solid support base in the partyroom and LNP organisation, and his perceived links with Howard government minister Santo Santoro, a deeply polarising figure, could count against him.

The LNP will be hoping that the weekend Galaxy poll, which was broadly consistent with a less-authoritative ReachTEL automated poll in Ashgrove last week, will administer the required shock to local voters and bring them back to the Newman fold.

Meanwhile, Labor can hardly believe its luck.