French President Emmanuel Macron has weaponised Australia’s decision to scrap the Naval Group’s $90bn future submarine contract and will make it as awkward as possible for Scott Morrison at the G20 and COP26 summits.
Macron is maximising the international stage to win domestic political points at home ahead of the French presidential election in April. He scored his first win before the G20 summit began after egging-on US President Joe Biden to throw Australia under a bus.
The AUKUS pact – released with great fanfare last month in a press conference where Biden forgot Morrison’s name – has turned into an unpredictable diplomatic football for the Prime Minister. Macron has also ramped-up pressure on Boris Johnson – who has staunchly backed the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal – over post-Brexit fishing rights.
Biden and Macron stood close together for the G20 family photo on Saturday with Morrison on the other side of the stage. Following the pic opp, Biden and Macron mingled with first responders on stage while Morrison swiftly exited. Morrison is not scheduled to meet with either Macron or Biden but will meet with Johnson on Saturday, with the British Prime Minister happy with Australia’s 2050 net zero commitment.
Morrison did however shake hands with Macron prior to the family photo, approaching the French president for a brief “warm” chat in a bid to ease tensions.
Morrison will do what he has to at the G20 and UN climate change conferences and remain overseas no longer than required. Taking part in global talkfests during a pandemic doesn’t play well at home. Selling his plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 is more important in battleground seats than international summits in Rome and Glasgow.
With leaders from Russia, Mexico, Japan, China and Saudi Arabia staying away from Rome, don’t expect anything of substance to emerge from the G20 – or G15 – communique. There will be broad stroke agreements around vaccines, climate change, economic co-operation and geostrategic solidarity. Climate pledges will be made that the big emitters including China, India and Russia can’t or won’t meet.
Biden’s intervention on Saturday – in which he chided Australia over its “clumsy” handling of the French submarine contract – did Morrison no favours but expedited the repair job between Washington and Paris. It’s a concern if Biden wasn’t aware about the ramifications of joining AUKUS. His senior staff were fully across the detail, French contract and economic benefits the US stood to reap if Australia paid for their nuclear submarines.
Macron is posturing for cheap political points, fully aware that Australia’s contract with Naval was no longer fit-for-purpose. Morrison – who received a 6pm phone call from Macron as he prepared to fly-out from Canberra on Thursday night – expects the Australia-French relationship to get back on track after the French election.
As China and Russia isolate themselves from the world, targeted military pacts like AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue are more important than ever. If Macron is serious about regional security and pushing back against China and Russia, France must re-join its major Indo-Pacific allies.
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