Anthony Albanese threat is real but challengers keeping powder dry

Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek in Sydney last October. Picture: Monique Harmer

The risk to Anthony Albanese’s leadership is very real, but whether it is realised is another question.

There is clearly widespread despair within the caucus.

But with no factional grouping able to decide on a candidate and no candidate prepared to take up the cudgels, chances are that the party will stick with him for the time being. A frontbench reshuffle at the weekend will in part be designed to end the internal rumblings.

Nevertheless, momentum appears to be building, fuelled by bewildered colleagues citing the droll refrain that the man leading the charge against Anthony Albanese’s leadership is Anthony Albanese himself. Wednesday night’s interview on the ABC’s 7.30 won’t have changed any minds.

Albanese’s backers argue that the polls have Labor within striking distance, Albanese’s own approval ratings in positive territory and the government with a one-seat majority.

Two senior Labor figures say that a majority of Labor MPs would support a change, although this has been rejected by others as overstating the level of frustration.

Either way, the sort of public interventions that have occurred — most notably Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek of late — would not be happening if Albanese was going well.

While Albanese can no longer dismiss the rumblings, two key issues offer protection.

No one can decide who the alternative leadership team would be. Worse than that, those who fancy themselves aren’t prepared put their hand up. Tanya Plibersek, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers are all in the mix.

Richard Marles, while ideologically capable, is regarded as not having the strength to pull it off and Shorten has ruled himself out.

All want to be recruited by a factional group that can guarantee them victory but without having to make the brave and necessary contribution to the realignment of the party.

Joel Fitzgibbon has until now led an almost singular charge to embolden others to join his campaign of changing the party and, if needed, changing the leader. Unless someone emerges who is prepared to change the narrative, rightly or wrongly, senior right Labor figures despair the party will simply let the show go off the cliff to grope over the spoils of leadership after an election loss.

While this is by no means an inevitability, Albanese’s leadership is now being hobbled to the point that any cut through he may have been hoping for heading into a potential election year is being undermined by leadership woes and front running by shadow cabinet colleagues.