Anthony Albanese ‘surrounded by second-tier premiers’

A changing of the guard of the country’s premiers could weaken Anthony Albanese as political big beasts are replaced with ‘L-platers’, strategists believe.

ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr, left, SA Premier Peter Malinauskas, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, NSW Premier Chris Minns, Anthony Albanese, NT Chief Minister Natasha Fyles, then Victorian premier Daniel Andrews, WA Premier Roger Cook and Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff at a national cabinet meeting in August. Picture: Dan Peled

A “changing of the guard” of the country’s premiers could weaken Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party federally as political big beasts are replaced with “L-platers”, strategists say.

Dan Andrews’ departure on Wednesday, elevating Jacinta Allan to Victoria’s premiership, marks another of the “election-winning Labor leaders” surrounding Mr Albanese hanging up their spurs.

“These changes don’t help Albanese, they hurt him,” former Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger said.

 

“He was surrounded by leaders who’d served longer than him, which bolstered his own leadership – he’s now supported by L-platers.”

Mr Kroger said given the inexperience across the states – “with one exception, Annastacia (Palaszczuk), who won’t win the next election” – Mr Albanese could be expected to be more cautious.

“The Prime Minister now has second-tier premiers surrounding him, he’ll be more cautious – he’s more exposed to error,” he said.

A senior staffer in both the Baird and Berejiklian NSW governments said the country was looking “premier lite”.

“Most are more light weight compared to the experience we saw among their predecessors,” the ex-staffer said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to protect relationships.

“I doubt we’ll ever see those types of experienced journeymen – who earned their stripes through pretty challenging events – any time soon.”

Although describing Mr Andrews’ pandemic approach as “draconian”, the former staffer conceded he was a “formidable premier”.

“Those leaders – Andrews, McGowan, Berejiklian – had a lifetime of experience wrapped into a couple of years.”

Newly elected Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen speaks in Melbourne after Mr Andrews’s resignation. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

However, although now unable to lean on experience, Mr Albanese’s position could be strengthened by the absence of premiers “who had real influence on the national body politic”, political strategist Bruce Hawker said.

“Covid had this effect where state leaders exercised real power, all of whom had much more influence on the prime minister than they would otherwise,” he said.

“Real power comes with a real sense of leadership, and during times of crisis we want, and look to, strong leadership.”

However, those that took up the mantle thereafter have struggled, Mr Hawker said, meaning power – or the sense of it – would flow back to Mr Albanese.

The loss of another experienced Labor premier could have ramifications for Anthony Albanese, both positive and negative. Picture: Emma Brasier

“It makes a difference if a prime minister is dealing with inexperienced premiers, instead of leaders who know exactly what they’re doing,” he said, adding that the pre-Covid relationship between the Commonwealth and states had returned.

In Western Australia, one ­former Labor strategist said that the task ahead for Mr Andrews’ ­successor was “absolutely” tougher than that which faced Roger Cook after he replaced Mark McGowan in Western Australia.

“Dan’s got this huge legacy that Mark doesn’t have, but then there’s all the issues that come with that, including budget repair, which is something that doesn’t even register on Roger’s radar,” he said.

“It comes down to new taxes or cutting spending – how else do you repair the Victorian budget from $170bn worth of debt?”

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is the now the last remaining ‘pandemic political premier’ standing. Picture: Tertius Pickard

He said it was important for Mr Andrews’ successor to differentiate themselves from Mr Andrews.

“Jacinta will have to define herself pretty quickly and not just be seen as Dan-Lite,” he said.

“That should mean making some changes and implementing her own style – sooner rather than later.”

The two biggest challenges towering over Mr Andrews’ successor, he said, were the state’s debt and Mr Andrews’ own standing in Victoria.

While filling those shoes would not be easy, the new Victorian Premier would have the benefit of facing a weak opposition that continues to struggle for traction.

“The biggest advantage that Labor continues to have is the state of the Victoria Liberals, which is just appalling,” the strategist said.