Anthony Albanese safe if Labor loses Eden-Monaro, says frontbenchers

Senior Labor figures insist a loss at the up-coming by-election in Eden-Monaro would not threaten Anthony ­Albanese’s leadership.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: AAP

Senior Labor figures have warned the NSW seat of Eden-Monaro will be difficult to retain at the upcoming by-election but insist a loss would not threaten Anthony ­Albanese’s leadership.

While the Liberal Party will not endorse its candidate until Friday and had a rocky start after a 24-hour tilt by NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance, Labor MPs said the loss of popular former member Mike Kelly could cost the party more than 1 per cent of the vote.

Mr Kelly won the seat against Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs — who is vying to run again — by just 1.7 per cent (50.85 per cent against 49.15 per cent) or 1685 votes at last year’s federal election.

The caution over Eden-Monaro comes amid tensions over Labor’s support for workers during the coronavirus pandemic, after opposition Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers moved quicker than some of his colleagues wanted to push through a motion overhauling sections of the government’s $130bn JobKeeper program.

Mr Chalmers raised the motion — to expand the scheme to universities and employees of foreign-owned entities such as major air services provider Dnata — in caucus last week before it had been signed off by Labor’s expenditure review committee.

The move, which went against normal protocol, was branded “weird” and chaotic by MPs but they rejected the suggestion Mr Chalmers had taken the action to remind colleagues of his leadership ambitions.

Sources close to the Opposition Leader said he was not involved in the caucus debate and did not attend the committee meetings.

Some Labor MPs were concerned that allowing all foreign-owned businesses access to JobKeeper could open the program to unknown or unwanted companies and would force the government to spend unnecessary taxpayer funds.

The Morrison government’s response to the coronavirus is set to be a key issue at the by-election but there was an expectation within Labor’s ranks that a socially distant campaign would benefit the Coalition.

One frontbencher said the Liberal Party was better at winning over the airwaves while Labor was more successful at doorknocking and stalls, which would be limited during the pandemic.

Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain, a former mayor, is considered a strong candidate and popular in Bega and bushfire-­affected areas along the coast but she will have to convince constituencies in Queanbeyan, Yass and in the electorate’s west to vote for her in order to win. Opposition frontbenchers played down the party’s chances of keeping the seat, which was a bellwether electorate for nearly 50 years until Mr Kelly won it back in 2016.

But they said a loss would not reflect poorly on Mr Albanese even though a government has not taken a seat off the opposition in a by-election for 100 years.

Caucus rules state Labor leaders can only be challenged if 60 per cent of MPs in opposition, or 75 per cent in government, support such a move.

Labor MPs noted it was just one year in to the electoral cycle and predicted COVID-19 would help the Liberal Party.

Potential wildcards included whether there was a second wave of coronavirus cases during the by-election campaign or whether ­Coalition divisions flared over how to reform JobKeeper, with a Treasury review being conducted in June. Eden-Monaro Liberal branches will decide on Friday whether to choose Ms Kotvojs, a beef ­farmer and businesswoman, or Queanbeyan councillor Mark Schweikert as their candidate.