Anthony Albanese paying for his own mistakes as Direction 99 disaster throws him post-budget

Anthony Albanese and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese is now paying a considerable political price for yet another serious post-election misjudgment.

But the Direction 99 disaster wasn’t the only one the government faced this week. The inflation rate going up means Jim Chalmers’ budget strategy is now considerably shakier.

If the RBA is to maintain interest rates higher for longer, as the markets are now factoring in, the Prime Minister can forget about a rate cut before the election.

In the first parliamentary week back after the budget, a week in which the budget was barely mentioned, the government has been thrown off course. But again, this was all of its own making.

Albanese was given plenty of warning about the potential for unintended consequences of softening migration laws to mollify then-New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern back in 2022. Yet he seems to have ignored what was patently obvious to others.

The net effect of elevating long-term residency to a primary consideration in the overturning of visa cancellations for foreigners with criminal histories was always going to result in more criminals being allowed to stay in Australia.

In fact, this appears to have been its intention. Presumably the argument would then come down to what level of criminality was ­acceptable.

Albanese has tried to dodge the link between Ministerial Direction 99 and his promise to Ardern to stop sending back recidivist Kiwis. This is an unsustainable position.

A submission from the Department of Home Affairs to embattled Immigration Minister Andrew Giles only weeks Albanese held a press conference with Ardern draws the link in no uncertain terms.

“Amendments to visa cancellation legislation or policy settings are likely to receive significant media attention,” the submission said. “Given the undertakings made by Prime Minister Albanese at the Australia-New Zealand Leaders’ Meeting in July 2022, the New Zealand government and media will be especially vigilant ­regarding any changes to the character framework and policy settings, as New Zealand citizens are among the largest expatriate population and constitute around a third of all temporary entrants into Australia.”

Albanese said at the time he wanted to apply “common sense” to cases of NZ nationals who had spent most of their lives in Australia when it came to cancelling their visas on character grounds. But it appears it was alack of common sense that was applied when drawing up the MD99.

The government can’t enact race-based laws. This much is ­obvious to anyone. So, the broader consequences of MD99 – to give the courts leeway to give greater weight to long-term residence when deciding to overturn visa bans – were well understood.

Anthony Albanese in Sydney on Friday. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

The department was alive to the danger of unintended consequences. And it warned the government in clear terms.

The unit within the Department of Home Affairs dedicated to removing foreign criminals from the country is known as the “cancellation factory”. Within this team are some of the toughest and experienced decision-makers within the department. They have to be, considering the legal liability they ultimately hold personally for the decisions they make.

It is no surprise then that the department was engaged in a long-running dispute with Giles and others in government over the consequences of enacting Direction 99. There is no doubt that the department had been placed under considerable pressure from the government soon after it was elected in May 2022 to deliver this policy change, among others, including the return of the so-called brides of ISIS. It did what was required of it and has now been thrown under the bus.

Albanese will continue to hold on to Giles for as long as he has to, despite the political cost this may incur.

And while Peter Dutton continues to call for his scalp, what he really wants is for Albanese to do exactly what he is doing: keeping Giles in the job as a political ­pinata for the Coalition.

Albanese on Friday said there was no “imminent” intention to shift the deck chairs, meaning he plans to, but at a time of his choosing rather than the opposition or the media’s.