ALP review: Shorten’s message ‘drowned out’ by Palmer and Coalition

Labor’s campaign was trounced by the combined forces of Clive Palmer and the Coalition, an election review has found.

Former Labor leader Bill Shorten, with wife Chloe, concedes defeat on electiopn night. Picture: AFP

Labor’s digital, advertising and ground campaign were trounced by the combined forces of Clive Palmer and the Coalition, drowning out Bill Shorten’s policies and failing to combat “disinformation” as ALP tracking polling showed the party was tanking.

Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill issued a scathing assessment of Labor’s failure to cut through, despite a “substantial increase in the digital advertising budget” and the party’s previous online campaignin­g dominance over the ­Coalition. The campaign review, which revealed Labor’s email list shrank over the course of the 45th parliament and raised “less money online from fewer donors than in 2016”, concedes the party’s campaign tracking was “persistently less optimistic” than publishe­d polling.

The review confirmed that polling inaccuracies had led Labor to believe it was “slightly ahead, when it was, in fact, behind”.

“An industry-wide failure resulted in polling consistently over-estimating the Labor vote and underestimating Coalition support. Labor struggled to process internal research that ran counter to its expected win,” the review said.

The review revealed ALP tracking polling indicated Labor had opened the campaign with a primary vote in marginal seats of 37-38 per cent, similar to the ­Coalition, with an ALP two-party-preferred vote of 51 per cent. “Less than a week into the campaign, Labor’s primary vote had slipped to 34 per cent and its two-party-preferred vote to 47 per cent.

“The Coalition (falsely) claimed it had Treasury advice Labor would increase taxes by $387bn over a decade. The ALP had deleted numer­ous pages of policy content from its website and Bill Shorten misinterpreted a question on superannuation, mistakenly stating Labor had no plans to change its tax treatment, one of the most important policies of the campaign. “Further stumbles on the ­demands for more detailed costings of Labor’s climate change policies capped off a shaky start to the campaign. This allowed the Coalition to escalate its ‘Shifty Shorten’ attack, which it had been trialling for 18 months.”

Coalition efforts — led by federal­ Liberal Party director Andre­w Hirst — to boost its 2016 digital strategy effectively dismantled Labor’s online campaigning, ­according to the review.

Dr Emerson and Mr Weatherill said there was an “urgent need to dramatically improve its digital campaigning capability”.

“The magnitude of Clive ­Palmer’s expenditure crowded out Labor’s advertising in broadcast, print and digital media,’’ they said.  “Labor’s digital campaign in 2016 was superior to the ­Coalition’s but by 2019 it was ­inferior to the Coalition’s and that of its allies. Despite a substantial increase in the digital advertising budget, Labor’s digital capacity went backwards.

“Labor’s digital team was not empowered to lead the functions they were allocated. Instead, ­digital was seen as a means to amplif­y the content, priorities and activities of other parts of the ­campaign.”

The review found Labor’s grassroots campaigning efforts lacked co-ordination between ­national, state and local officials, and that “candidate vetting principles were not consistently applied”.

“Some candidates and local campaigns have also observed that in their interactions with the ­national campaign headquarters and their state or territory branch, it wasn’t always clear who was ­responsible for providing support or assistance in different areas,’’ it said. “There is some evidence of polic­ies and messaging that was crafted by the central campaign in isolation from state and territory branches.

“Roles and responsibilities for implementation and advice to local campaigns need to be clearly defined early between campaign headquarters and state and territ­ory branches to avoid duplication of effort and to ensure consistency in the advice provided.”

Dr Emerson and Mr Weath­erill warned that, while Mr Shorten should have won the election, it “unfortunately does not mean the 2022 campaign will be any easier”.