ALP Left surges as powerbrokers mull Shorten’s future
The Left is now the dominant force in Victorian politics, raising questions about the future of former leader Bill Shorten and other Right MPs.
Powerbrokers will try to ring-fence former federal Labor leader Bill Shorten from political death after a surge in support for Victoria’s Socialist Left faction and a looming redistribution also exposed some of Richard Marles’s forces to unpredictable preselections.
The Socialist Left, Premier Daniel Andrews’s powerbase, is dominant, delivering overwhelming wins in some votes on the ALP conference floor last weekend that will change the shape of the party.
The dominance, secured with cross-factional backing in some votes that carried more than 66 per cent support, will bolster national Left power for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
But it could also expose him to internal fighting over who should remain in parliament and who should be handed safe seats.
Multiple sources said the party’s Right was bracing for a potentially more radical Left agenda, evidenced by the decision last weekend to back recognition of a Palestinian state amid expectations the Left faction takeover of the Labor Party is likely at the August national conference.
Long-time party watchers now believe the Victorian Left will seek to cash in with demands for more federal seats, with the socialists already in a so-called stability pact with Deputy Prime Minister Mr Marles’s Labor Unity grouping, a sub-faction of the Victorian Right.
Internal analysis of the carve-up of seats in the federal parliament shows the Left is numerically well under-represented compared with its conference vote, prompting questions about how long Mr Shorten should remain in the parliament and whether the Left should be handed more federal seats. It has 14 compared with the Marles group’s 12, the analysis says.
The split in the Victorian Right is vicious after former Right leader Adam Somyurek’s behind-the-scenes manoeuvring was exposed on 60 Minutes.
At the time, the Victorian Right ruled the state with an alliance worth 64 per cent of the internal vote.
But that has now evaporated, with the broad Socialist Left controlling nearly 50 per cent on its own, as well as holding the support of independents and, via a deal with the Marles forces, it can garner more than 70 per cent of the party on the conference floor.
“We are not going to sit back and let the Right have more than they should,” a Left figure warned.
“When the time comes, we should get what our numbers reflect.”
The Socialist Left has a majority of Labor’s seats in the Victorian parliament.
‘’The Left is unassailable,’’ a senior party figure said. ‘’They will want more and more.’’
Mr Shorten is at odds with the Marles group but the Left wants to ring-fence his preselection because of his status as a former leader and to protect Mr Albanese from the fallout.
“The numbers never lie,” another Left figure said, adding that Mr Shorten would be protected by the broad faction, regardless of the split in the once dominant Right.
Another Right figure said while there had been speculation about Mr Shorten, no one was looking to run him out of the parliament.
“No one is even talking about Shorten,” the figure said. “He’s yesterday’s hero.’’
But the battle for Labor seats will intensify in the lead-up to the next election, with a looming redistribution expected to cost Victoria one seat, which will come either from outer-northern Melbourne or Victoria’s middle-eastern ring, according to the Liberal and Labor parties.
As minister, Mr Shorten has the difficult job of running the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
The Victorian ALP is a notoriously complex entity, affected by shifting relationships and loyalties, evidenced by the overhaul of the organisation after Mr Somyurek’s “branch development activities” were exposed. Due to Covid and the federal party’s intervention, it had not met via a state conference since 2019. This was after ex-premier Steve Bracks and former federal minister Jenny Macklin were appointed to audit the party membership and stop branch stacking.
The net result was the Victorian Right split and the Left gained power through side deals that gave it outright power. On its own, the Socialist Left has just under 50 per cent of the party but, via deals with the independents and the Marles sub-faction, wields overwhelming influence.
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