Afghanistan withdrawal should bring stronger focus back to Indo-Pacific

Kabul airport on Sunday. Picture: AFP

Now may not be the time for the federal government to be saying it, but the withdrawal from Afghanistan may ultimately serve Australia’s broader national and strategic interest.

But it will depend entirely on whether the US has the resolve to focus more of its attention where it now matters most.

Twenty years ago, when the mission to hunt down Osama bin Laden began after 9/11, the world was dealing with a benign China. That is no longer the case and hasn’t been for the past five of those 20 years.

While the risk of terrorism may again be heightened, if the question were to be asked of where Australia’s strategic challenges lie the answer is no longer the Middle East.

When the US went into Afghanistan, Australia went for two reasons: because of the US-Australia alliance and to protect Australian lives from the global reach of terrorism.

But this has meant that for the past two decades the locus of that alliance was absorbed in a region beyond that which is now our more immediate concern.

It also has meant that America’s own strategic interests have been split.

The task ahead will be to draw that locus back into the Indo-Pacific.

This is not to say that what is happening in Afghanistan isn’t terrifying for those living the consequences of the disastrous transfer of power to the Taliban. And Australia must not forget its humanitarian obligations.

But if Scott Morrison has done one thing over the past year other than manage the pandemic, he has enlivened Australia’s allies, partners and our closer neighbours to the very real risks in this region, whether it has been through Australia’s engagement with ASEAN, which has an interest in strategic balance, independence and sovereignty, or the G7, which represents the principles of democracy, freedom and international institutions.

So, if once the dust settles, it means that our most important strategic partner and ally is more decisively focused on the greatest challenge in a part of the world that Australia stands to lose the most then Australia’s current and future strategic interests will be better served.

This will depend on many things but chiefly, how badly damaged US confidence may be in the face of the mess it has made of its disengagement in Afghanistan, and how far China will now go in seeking to exploit it.