A dismal stand, driven by polling

TONY Abbott's new immigration policy fails on two counts.

His actual cut in numbers is largely sleight of hand, yet the new process he unveils is a threat to Australia's long-run immigration program.

The Liberal Party now seeks election by outflanking Labor as champions of a smaller-growing Australia. It is a dismal and disreputable stand driven by polling and riddled with contradictions.

The Opposition Leader's purpose by putting hard numbers on his immigration cut is to seize the smaller Australia position from Julia Gillard. But Abbott, like the Prime Minister, refuses to tell the truth: that immigration will remain high into the future because neither leader is mad enough to deny the economic and labour market needs that immigration satisfies.

In this sense, their messages constitute a fraud upon the public.

Abbott's promise is to cut net overseas migration by about 100,000 to 170,000 by the end of his first term. In fact, this number reflects the downward trend.

Sustainable Population Minister Tony Burke said yesterday the net intake for 2009-10 was down to 230,000 from its artificial peak of about 300,000. Burke referred to a BIS Shrapnel forecast that the figure under Labor was forecast to fall to 175,000 in 2010-11 anyway.

The point, however, is that the Coalition has enshrined this goal three years out. This is bad public policy and moves Australia into the realm of immigration targets.

Abbott's target is to reduce population growth in his first term to within 1.4 per cent annually. Note, this is the historical average of the past 40 years and it is a high number. He pledges an immigration white paper to reframe the structure and composition of the immigration program consistent with sustainable population growth.

The plan, however, is to impose "guard rails" on population growth by invoking sustainability. This is where Abbott's boast is for "direct action to get our population growth under control".

The actual numbers nominated by the Coalition are probably not too different from where Labor is going. But there is a trap. At his news conference, Abbott bagged the idea of a 36 million population by 2050. That is entirely reasonable for Australia as a growth economy, and assumes annual net migration of 180,000.

The Coalition seems headed for a new type of immigration policy where numbers are based on so-called sustainability criteria, or our "capacity to accommodate growth" according to infrastructure, environment and economy.

It opens the option of a slowing growing Australia in the long run. That is the message Abbott sends, and he cannot be surprised if people take him at face value.