Anthony Albanese has abundant political capital – and will need it to get a Yes

Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings are still remarkably strong. But comparing today’s Newspoll with one conducted before the republic referendum delivers an interesting result.

Cartoon: Johannes Leak

Anthony Albanese has lost some bark over summer. But considering his approval ratings have been stratospheric since the May election, it is hardly surprising.

Nor will it be particularly concerning for the Prime Minister, with the fundamentals still very strong for the government and his leadership. What will be of more concern, but perhaps only mildly, is that while a majority of voters are still with him on a voice to parliament, there is notable softness in the Yes vote, which could be readily exploited if he doesn’t get this right.

A majority of 56 per cent say they support the referendum proposition, but with half of those claiming to be only “partly” supportive it is not done and dusted on these numbers by a long shot.

The government’s view would be that with a majority behind them, once the Yes campaign begins, support will harden.

The No campaign will heavily target the soft Yes vote, believing it has history on its side when it comes to referendums.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating remains high. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

The question becomes what element of the proposition becomes the more influential argument among the soft Yes. What is going to change people’s minds?

Albanese would feel comfortable that he’s in a reasonable position.

There is a significant difference in the gender split. More women were in favour than men.

Also meaningful was the deterioration of support down the age spectrum. In that sense, the No vote was reflective of conservative demographics.

In other words, the poll showed that the Yes and No votes were split heavily along party political lines. It has become an ideologically partisan proposition. Peter Dutton is either reflecting this, or now leading it.

This reinforces the view that to be certain of passage, Albanese may need to find a bridge to get the Coalition on board.

A comparison with the republic referendum is a reasonable starting point considering the history of referendums and their likelihood of success.

The Newspoll question on the voice was crafted in a similar format to the republic questions asked by Newspoll more than 20 years ago, so the comparison is worthwhile, noting the different methodology used now compared to 1999.

While the Yes vote for the voice is slightly higher than Yes for the republic in the lead-up to the vote (56 per cent compared to 51 per cent), the No vote was also higher (37 per cent to 35 per cent).

The latest Newspoll showed that the Yes and No votes were split heavily along party political lines. It has become an ideologically partisan proposition. Peter Dutton is either reflecting this, or now leading it, writes Simon Benson. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

What is remarkably similar is the “strong” Yes vote (28 per cent for the voice and 30 per cent for republic). This suggests a similar level of “soft support” for the question.

On that basis, the voice is not looking any more certain than the republic was looking back then. While the principle was supported, it was the model that was rejected.

Nevertheless, Albanese has abundant political capital to prosecute the case over the next six months. And he may need it considering the economic challenges coming the government’s way.

The polls have barely shifted since December, with Labor maintaining a 55/45 two party preferred lead over the Coalition heading into the parliamentary year.

Albanese’s approval ratings, while taking a hit over the summer break, are also still remarkably strong, suggesting the honeymoon with the electorate hasn’t ended yet.

For Dutton, it signals the time to start upping the tempo. He needs to start making the case for the alternative.