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Simon Benson

Newspoll: Honeymoon continues for Anthony Albanese as Peter Dutton’s nightmare grows worse

Simon Benson
Anthony Albanese has maintained his healthy approval ratings, despite a rise in those less happy with him. Picture: Jonathan Ng
Anthony Albanese has maintained his healthy approval ratings, despite a rise in those less happy with him. Picture: Jonathan Ng

The electoral honeymoon for ­Anthony Albanese continues. As does the post-election nightmare for Peter Dutton and the ­Coalition.

On the back of the political success of the jobs and skills summit, Labor has widened its two-party-preferred lead over the Liberal-Nationals.

Albanese has maintained his healthy approval ratings, despite a rise in those less happy with him.

The Prime Minister is riding a post-election wave of approval.

Some may argue that it would be odd if he wasn’t, but the latest Newspoll shows that Labor’s dominance is less about its own rising fortunes and satisfaction with Albanese’s performance over the past month than it is about the sinking state of the Coalition.

Not helped, one would assume, by the misfortunes inflicted on the brand by Scott Morrison’s secret ministry saga. But is it that dire?

At 31 per cent primary vote, the Coalition finds itself in its equal worst result since polling records began in the mid-1980s.

Peter Dutton. Picture: Tracey Nearmy
Peter Dutton. Picture: Tracey Nearmy

The last time popular support for the centre-right partnership was this low was in February 2008, at around the same point during its last stint in opposition following the election of Kevin Rudd in November 2007.

The difference is that the two-party-preferred split back then was 63-37 in Labor’s favour, compared with 57-43 now.

A primary vote of 31 per cent now for the Coalition could be ­regarded as being not as bad as the 31 per cent back then.

The Coalition’s position is obviously disastrous, yet far from the worst on record in terms of 2PP.

Dutton’s own approval ratings are equally low at minus eight - and only a point above that of ­Liberal leader Brendan Nelson at the same point in the cycle of ­opposition.

Bear in mind, Malcolm Turnbull got as low as 33 per cent as ­opposition leader and Simon Crean dropped to 39 per cent as Labor opposition leader.

Yet it would take an optimist among the Liberals to find comfort in any of this.

All the damage on the conservative side hasn’t translated, however, into gains for Labor or personally for Albanese.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has been gradually picking up support since the election and now sits at a three-year high of 7 per cent – a trend that seems to be overshadowed by the attention received by the Teals, who accounted for about 5 per cent.

On the basis that preferences now appear to be more important than ever – considering the consistently low collective primary vote for both major parties – then 57-43 is probably as bad as it gets in the contemporary context for the Liberal and Nationals parties.

Liberal party operatives would like to claim that the further fall in support was solely due to Morrison. And it may well be.

The saga has rendered Dutton incapable of putting pressure on the government amid economic uncertainty and keeping the focus off the internal tribulations of the opposition.

That said, with Labor’s primary vote static at 37 per cent since July, the question begs as to whether the new government may have just hit the post-election high water mark.

The budget in October may well determine the answer.

What the Newspoll also shows is that Albanese is far more popular than the Labor Party. This presents a potential future dilemma that confronted the ­Coalition when Morrison’s numbers turned.

If Albanese has a stumble, Labor could be in trouble. Not that this is a current concern.

The reality that neither major party is likely to see a primary vote above 40 per cent any time soon seems to be setting in. This is especially so for Labor if the Greens keep support of 12-13 per cent.

While people would clearly rather have Albanese as PM than Dutton, by a large margin, many prefer to give their primary vote to a party other than Labor.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-honeymoon-continues-for-anthony-albanese-as-peter-duttons-nightmare-grows-worse/news-story/a23551554211932536c7c30f7380539f