Newspoll: ALP in poll position as Scott Morrison narrows gap
Scott Morrison has pulled ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred PM amid a further fall in popular support for Labor, finds Newspoll.
Scott Morrison has pulled ahead of Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister amid a further fall in popular support for Labor, as the two rivals prepare for battle in the first week of an election campaign framed as a referendum on leadership.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian on the eve of the campaign proper also shows the contest between the two major parties tightening to its closest margin this year.
Labor’s primary vote has fallen to its lowest level since October last year, dropping a point to 37 per cent on top of a three-point fall last week. This is the same level of support for Labor at the start of the 2019 election campaign.
But the Coalition still has significant ground to make up over the next weeks with Labor remaining in poll position at the start of the campaign.
The Coalition’s primary vote remains unchanged on a low 36 per cent. It would need to make up at least four points over the course of the campaign to be in a winning position.
Support for minor parties and independents also lifted to 27 per cent – almost two points above the 2019 election result – on the back of a one-point lift in support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party to 4 per cent.
The Greens remain unchanged on 10 per cent, with One Nation level on 3 per cent and “others” recording 10 per cent for the third poll in a row.
The shift in underlying support for Labor has resulted in a one-point gain for the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis with Labor ahead 53-47.
This is the closest margin between the two parties so far this year.
However, it still represents a 4.5 per cent swing against the government since the last election. If applied on a uniform basis across all 151 lower-house seats, the Coalition would theoretically stand to lose 10 lower house seats in the parliament.
In the critical personal contest between the two leaders, Mr Morrison has pulled ahead of the Labor leader as the better prime minister with the two leaders having been locked in a neck-and-neck race since February.
Mr Albanese fell three points to 39 per cent while Mr Morrison rose a point to 44 per cent. This is the largest lead the Prime Minister has held over his rival since February, with the two having drawn level in early March.
The improvement for Mr Morrison comes despite a week of personal attacks on the Prime Minister’s character, including critical assessments by disaffected current and former Liberal Party members, and a highly publicised pub visit to Newcastle in which he was verbally abused by a pensioner.
Mr Morrison’s personal approval ratings remained unchanged with 42 per cent of voters saying they were satisfied with his performance compared with 54 per cent saying they were dissatisfied, giving the Prime Minister a net negative satisfaction score of minus 12.
Mr Albanese suffered his second consecutive fall in approval ratings with a one-point drop to 42 among those satisfied – level with Mr Morrison – and a one-point rise to 45 per cent among those dissatisfied.
This left the Labor leader with a net negative approval rating of minus three. A total of 13 per cent were still undecided about the Opposition Leader.
Setting a benchmark for the start of the campaign, the Newspoll covered a week that included major defence announcements by the government as a prelude to a campaign that will have a strong focus on national security.
It is the second poll to be conducted in the space of a fortnight, gauging the electoral response to the government’s cost-of-living budget and Mr Albanese’s budget in reply.
The poll of 1506 voters was conducted across Australia between April 6 and 9.
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