New bail stats reveal rise in minors in custody amid record crime wave
A “perfect storm” of crime has placed the Victorian government under fire ahead of the 2026 state elections, as parlous new statistics show children are behind nearly half of aggravated burglaries, with police facing a major overhaul.
The Allan government has been rocked by a “perfect storm” of crime ahead of next year’s Victorian election, with police confirming children are behind nearly half of aggravated burglaries, forcing the state’s top cop to launch a review of the force.
Latest crime data released on Thursday has revealed a group of more than 1100 repeat offenders aged between 10 and 17 years old were responsible for more than 60 per cent of home invasions, almost half of all aggravated burglaries and a quarter of car thefts.
The government has conceded the results were “unacceptable” despite responding with a flurry of reactive legislative solutions, including two rounds of bail reforms aimed at keeping offenders behind bars.
Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Robert Hill said the surge reflected a “perfect storm” of factors, including the social disconnection caused by Covid lockdowns, gang influences, and social media.
He also said Chief Commissioner Mike Bush was set announce a major overhaul in the organisation’s structure aimed at putting crime prevention at the forefront, while also setting “an ambitious” target to slash crime by 5 per cent a year.
“There’s been this shift in behaviour by young people since Covid,” Mr Hill said.
“Some of the people arrested for these violent offences have no prior history. They’ve been influenced by gang mentality and social media – factors that weren’t around when I joined the force.”
The latest Crime Statistics Agency’s annual data for the year to June 30 revealed criminal incidents jumped 18.3 per cent in the year to June, the highest since records began in 2004, while offences rose 15.7 per cent to more than 638,000.
The data also included Victoria’s first set of bail statistics, after law changes allowed the CSA to access court and remand data.
Opposition leader Brad Battin said the latest figures highlighted the “incompetence” of the state government.
“The Allan Labor government, each and every step of the way, have ignored the fact of a crime crisis here in our state,” Mr Battin said.
“They’ve cut the Victorian Police budget by $50m. We’ve got 1100 fewer police on the beat and we’ve got over 700 on leave at the moment.
“Where is Jacinta Allan when these crimes are happening? Where is she today when these statistics came out highlighting the incompetence of the Allan Labor government?”
Police Minister Anthony Carbines was labelled a “coward” after holding a hastily organised press conference just minutes after the parlous statistics were made public. The move gave journalists little time to trawl through the data and prepare questions.
Opposition police spokesman David Southwick said Mr Carbines was trying to hide from the staggering set of statistics.
“I think this is symbolic of a government that surrounds itself in secrecy, shows no leadership and no courage,” he said.
While minors made up just 12.8 per cent of alleged offenders, Victoria Police said they were behind 62 per cent of robberies, 47.7 per cent of aggravated burglaries and 26.4 per cent car thefts.
Police have arrested 1128 children a combined 7118 times, saying a shrinking pool of repeat offenders was driving the crisis.
Bail applications to the Magistrates Court spiked 18.4 per cent in the past year, driven by more refusals and revocations. Unsentenced receptions into Youth Justice, those held in custody before their trial, rose 35 per cent, though they remain below the 2020 peak.
CSA chief statistician Fiona Dowsley said the new measures would help track how bail decisions shaped offending patterns.
“This initial set of bail statistics collated from multiple agencies is a first step to helping us better understand the impacts of bail or remand decisions on an alleged offender’s pathway through the criminal justice system and further offending,” Ms Dowsley said.
The set of data captures theft as the most significant driver of crime growth, surging by more than 54,000 cases to 246,654 offences – largely due to a 39 per cent rise in thefts from vehicles.
Number plates were the most common target, with nearly 32,500 stolen in the past year. Motor vehicle thefts climbed 42 per cent to their highest level since 2002, with police intelligence suggesting at least one in five cars was stolen using hi-tech electronic key reprogramming devices. Officers seized more than 800 such devices from alleged offenders in the past year.
Retail theft also soared, up nearly 28 per cent, with police saying organised syndicates have stolen millions of dollars worth of goods before being dismantled in major police operations.
Australian Retail Association CEO Chris Rodwell said Victoria was the only state without strict, proactive legislation on retail crime to protect both workers and customers.
“Today’s figures are grim and confirm Victoria’s retail crime crisis is only getting worse,” he said.
Family violence added further pressure, with incidents rising to a record 106,427. Breaches of family violence orders climbed by almost 17 per cent to 64,713.
The number of victims overall rose 16 per cent, with more than 280,000 person-related reports lodged, while organisational victims, such as businesses, increased by 25 per cent.
Police also raised the alarm over knife crime, with prohibited and controlled weapons offences up more than 11 per cent. Nearly 11,000 edged weapons were seized in the past year, part of what police say was an ongoing fight to contain youth gang activity and street violence.
Operations Alliance and Trinity, Victoria Police’s flagship youth strategy, led to more than 3300 arrests in the past year, targeting car thieves, under-age burglars and gang associates.
More than 77,500 arrests were made statewide in the 12 months to June, including more than 16,000 family violence arrests.
The figures also revealed aggravated home burglaries climbed more than 21 per cent to almost 8000, with car keys the most commonly stolen item.
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