Nation headed into a long recession: poll

Most Australians older than 35 believe the nation faces a recession lasting several years, a new opinion poll has found

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Most Australians older than 35 ­believe the nation faces a recession lasting several years thanks to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new opinion poll has found.

The YouGov poll results suggest that older Australians are more pessimistic about the ­nation’s economic future than their younger counterparts.

However, about 74 per cent of those polled are convinced the pandemic will lead to a recession, with just 9 per cent believing the economy will not fall victim to the virus.

YouGov conducted the online poll of 1500 Australians from May 13 to 16. The pollster’s head of public affairs and polling, Campbell White, said the results showed that Australians understood the economy was in “uncharted territory”.

More than eight in 10 Australians believe the economy will take at least a year to climb out of ­recession, while 52 per cent said it would take several years.

But Dr White said there was a marked difference of opinion on the severity of recessions between older and younger Australians.

“Few Australians aged under 50 have experienced a recession in their working lives,” he said. “It’s not surprising that those who are older than this are less sanguine about our ability to recover from this quickly.”

The age group most pessimistic about the economy were 50-64-year-olds, 83 per cent of whom ­expect a recession, according to the poll. About one in five people aged 18-34 believed any COVID-­inspired recession would last only about six months. About 76 per cent of men expected a recession compared with 72 per cent of women.

The poll results suggest that more than a third of Australians (37 per cent) believe they are worse off financially than they were a year ago.

About half of those polled said they were about the same financially as they were a year ago, while 11 per cent thought they were better off.

“There’s a substantial difference between those who are lucky to have a full-time job and those who aren’t,” Dr White said. “While just 32 per cent of those working full-time say they are worse off, 41 per cent of part-time workers and 44 per cent of those looking for work say they are worse off.”

Those working part-time were more ready to say they were financially worse off.

“While it’s fashionable to say we’re all in this together, the ­reality is that there are definitely haves and have-nots in the current situation,” Dr White said.

“Those working part-time and those looking for work are much more likely to say they are already worse off financially than they were a year ago, compared with those fortunate enough to be working full-time.”