Military conflict would lead to an almost total collapse of China: Morrison

The former PM says military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would deliver ‘mutually assured destruction’ but would devastate the Chinese economy more than the west.

Then-PM Scott Morrison meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019: “They have a lot to lose and the stakes are incredibly high and I think that gives pause for thought.”

Scott Morrison says military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would deliver “mutually assured destruction” but would devastate the Chinese economy more than the west and lead to an almost total collapse of the country.

The former prime minister also doubted China’s capability to wage war, saying its military strength on paper would be unlikely to be matched by performance in battle.

In an address to the conservative US think-tank the Hudson Institute on Wednesday, Mr Morrison said China’s apparent appetite for a détente with the west was a recognition that it was not ready to engage conflict and stood to lose more than the US.

“There are also signs that Chinese ambitions are not really ready to be realised,” Mr Morrison said.

“Strength on paper when it comes to military capability is very different to what it is in a real theatre of conflict.

“And if anyone ever doubts that, just ask the Russians.”

Speaking to an audience in Washington DC, Mr Morrison said that China stood to lose more than the US and the west more generally in a conflict over Taiwan.

“China has an enormous amount to lose by getting it wrong, which gives pause for thought,” he said.

“And the appetite for détente could be as much about securing breathing space as it is to avoid conflict.

“There is a mutually assured destruction when it comes to questions regarding Taiwan and I don’t believe everyone is prepared to risk everything in China on that issue.

“Supply chains would seize up, financial markets would panic and potentially collapse and we know Chinese ports account for 40 per cent of shipping volume in the world’s top 100 ports.

“Six of the largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait. What would happen to the movement of capital?

“The potential impact of sanctions would be a devastation to the Chinese economy and more so than it would be in western countries.”

Mr Morrison said estimates suggested that conflict with the US would reduce Chinese GDP by up to 35 per cent compared to between 5-10 per cent in the US.

“They have a lot to lose and the stakes are incredibly high and I think that gives pause for thought.”

Mr Morrison said that while China might have changed its tactics recently, and welcomed President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Anthony Albanese, he warned that Beijing had not changed its intent.

He said the west must remain vigilant

Australia and the western world needed to continue to reduce their dependence on the Chinese economy, supply chains and continue to diversify trade relationships.

“We must also continue to align our resistance to coercion and other aggressive acts in the grey zone,” Mr Morrison said.

“We must protect the rules based order that favours freedom and supports market based economies.”