Melbourne coronavirus lockdown lesson: let’s get out of here

Psychologist Justine Campbell saw the mental impact of lockdowns on her three children after 5½ months of homeschooling. So she cut ties with Melbourne for good.

Ethan, Justine, Dante and Allegra Campbell at their new Bulimba home in Brisbane after moving out of Melbourne. Picture: Glenn Hunt

Justine Campbell could see the mental health impacts of lockdowns on her three children after 5½ months of homeschooling. So when stage-four restrictions were announced across Melbourne, the psychologist decided to cut ties with the Victorian capital for good, and shift to Brisbane.

The family returned to Australia from Hong Kong only two years ago, drawn to Melbourne’s strong academic reputation. But, while elder son Ethan, 16, was able to continue his Year 11 schooling, the younger two were struggling to cope, developing Zoom fatigue and missing being with friends

“I lost track of what was important. But that’s what COVID has done, it has made people realise what makes them happy,” Ms Campbell said.

With her husband still stuck overseas, the family listed their home in Toorak and flew to Brisbane to escape. While two weeks of hotel quarantine was challenging, the freedom they are now experiencing in Brisbane’s leafy inner east is incomparable.

“Unless you have lived it (lockdowns), it is hard to understand what it was like,” Ms Campbell said. “I’m still so happy to be in Brisbane and to have freedom.”

The move was worth it. Younger son Dante, 10, is already playing team basketball at school, and had made friends by the end of his first week. Daughter Allegra, 13, is looking forward to starting at her new school next term. The family is also closer to Ms Campbell’s extended family, meaning the kids can visit their grandparents and cousins more often.

“I can’t talk about it much to people down there at the moment because it is like salt on the wound,” she said “I don’t think I’m alone and there will be many people contemplating it.”

She’s right, according to prominent social researcher Bob Birrell, who believes Melbourne could experience another exodus from the city similar to that of the 1990s, in the wake of the COVID crisis and city lockdown.

“In the early 90s Melbourne suffered a severe recession in the aftermath of the financial crisis and so the lure of Melbourne diminished sharply and so did job opportunities,” Dr Birrell said.

“The situation today is quite different to the early 1990s. The Sunshine and Gold coasts were in a boom phase, particularly attracting retirees. It’s not the same now, there are other possibilities (for relocation) including Western Australia.”

Research by property data firm Propertyology suggests there could be a net 30,000 decrease in the number of people entering Victoria as a result of the pandemic lockdown, which could place further pressure on the city’s falling housing market.

The research also suggests the economic ramifications of more than 100 days of stay-at-home orders could stall the population growth seen over the past few years as locals reassess work-life balance and workplace situations.

Recent modelling by PricewaterhouseCoopers commissioned by the City of Melbourne and the Victorian government forecast a $110bn fall in economic output over the next five years, in line with current state economic projections. This would result in significant job losses.

Propertyology head of research Simon Pressley said the harsh restrictions, the flexibility to work from home and the tree-change mentality, could make the regions more popular.

Demographer Bernard Salt said the extensions of lockdowns could result in baby boomers seeking change. “Australians are quite fluid people based on jobs and lifestyle,” Mr Salt told The Weekend Australian

“There’s a whole generation of baby boomers that have been staying in the workplace, but this could be a circuit breaker.”

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show Melbourne has been growing since 2013, with a net increase of 10,650 people in 2019.

Prior to Melbourne’s last property boom, its local economy was soft resulting in it losing 20,000 people to internal migration over the five years ending June 2012. Many shifted to WA to take advantage of the booming mining industry before returning after the collapse of the sector in 2014.

Economist Andrew Wilson said a slump in property prices was inevitable, with a 5 per cent fall this year possible. He said the tightening in rental vacancy and relatively consistent price rises in Darwin might suggest a relocation from Melbourne up north.

About 3080 people entered mandatory quarantine in the Territory between July 17 and September 4 from a designated hotspot such as Victoria, Greater Sydney or, very briefly, Brisbane. An estimated 90 per cent of the 805 of those currently quarantining are understood to be originally from Victoria.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella said there had been a spike in the number of Melburnians asking about southeast coastal property.

But Mr Salt said the city would likely recover as overseas migration returned, drawn to Melbourne’s long-term reputation as a liveable city with strong housing, education and health prospects. “We could have a resurgence in international immigration in 2022 onward … particularly when you compare how we performed to the US, Europe and Britain.

“Victoria will be seen as a safe harbour. People will want to migrate there in the late-2020s.”

Additional reporting: Amos Aikman