Marinus clean energy project threatened by ‘dirty’ politics

A plan to spend billions bringing clean energy to mainland Australia is under threat from alleged dirty politics, while a state Liberal government also looks increasingly shaky.

One of the nation’s largest energy projects faces collapse because of a political standoff in Tasmania, as alleged caretaker convention breaches threaten to end Liberal hopes of forming government in the state.

The Liberal government, in caretaker mode amid power-sharing negotiations following the election of a hung parliament on July 19, is demanding that the Labor opposition back the ­Marinus Link project by Thursday morning.

Labor leader Dean Winter – backed by crossbench MPs – says such a decision is impossible in such a short timeframe, amid the ongoing suppression of a vital whole-of-state business case for the project.

A rush to lock in political support led to a series of briefings on Tuesday, but Labor and the crossbench were angered by secrecy provisions and an alleged refusal to allow documents to be taken away for analysis.

Crossbenchers – some being courted for supply and confidence agreements – described the process as “farcical”, “total disrespectful”, “a deliberate breach of caretaker conventions”, “a gun to our head” and “disgraceful”.

The fallout has fuelled speculation in political circles that Labor is now in the box seat to form a minority government, with support from the Greens and three independents.

Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff, who has denied claims he prevented Labor being briefed on the business case weeks ago, on Wednesday wrote to Mr Winter demanding he back the project by 9am on Thursday.

“Not taking a positive FID (final investment decision) at this stage will be equivalent to taking a negative FID,” the Premier said.

Mr Winter has refused to comply, describing the ultimatum as “bullying”.

“Tasmanian Labor supports Project Marinus, but we will not be bullied into rubber-stamping a 1000-page deal with less than 24 hours’ notice – especially when the Premier has had the final business case on his desk for two months,” he said. “What we’ve seen over the past few days is nothing short of an appalling breach of caretaker conventions.

“I will not be complicit in this sham process. The people of Tasmania deserve a government that respects process and treats both the parliament and the public with honesty and respect.”

It is unclear where that leaves Marinus. The project, a second 750 megawatt, 345km interconnector under Bass Strait and accompanying northwest trans­mission project, aims to make Tasmania the “battery of the ­nation”. The theory is that the new link will fuel a wind rush and other renewable energy generation in Tasmania, allowing increased exports of clean energy to the mainland.

Its suppressed whole-of-state business case – which the government had promised would be released a month before a decision – is understood to flag massive increases to Tasmanian power bills.

It is also thought to show a $200m to $400m increase in revenue from power exports across Bass Strait, allowing government to offset price hikes via compensation. However, some of those briefed say such an outcome is based on heroic assumptions, creating unacceptable risks for taxpayers.

Tasmania is a minority shareholder in the project, co-sponsored by the Albanese and Victorian governments, who are understood to have decided to proceed with it.

Mr Rockliff said consultation became necessary under caretaker conventions only in recent days, when final negotiations concluded with Canberra.

“The Australian government has confirmed that a decision must be made by 2 August, 2025, with no further delay able to be accommodated,” he wrote to Mr Winter on Wednesday.

Energy Minister Nick Duigan said this “new deal” would “protect power prices without any additional cost to our state”, without providing details. He said the project was dead unless Labor backed it. “The opposition needs to agree for the government to accept the commonwealth’s offer in order for Marinus to proceed,” he told The Australian.

Mr Duigan also blamed “commercial in confidence issues” for the ongoing suppression of the business case, which he previously promised would be released “30 days before” FID.

Labor – backed by constitutional experts – believes Mr Rockliff can legally proceed with FID, without Labor’s blessing, but Liberal sources reject this.

Newly elected independent MP Peter George suggested the “deliberate breach of caretaker conventions” cast doubt on the Liberals’ ability to govern collaboratively. “It’s no way to approach minority government,” he said.

Fellow independent Kristie Johnston accused the Liberals of a “charade” and called on Labor not to back the project before all information was released.