Long, hot summer as Scott Morrison weathers storm after storm

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra on Sunday announcing Bridget McKenzie has handed in her resignation as agriculture minister.

Scott Morrison has scrubbed off at least one barnacle that threatened to pollute his leadership.

Bridget McKenzie may not have done a lot wrong but in politics, optics most often rules over substance. At worst, the Nationals deputy leader was cavalier and exposed herself to a conflict of interest.

But in today’s high-octane Canberra beltway, there was no other outcome that was viable.

Morrison otherwise continues to pay the personal price of the horrendous events of summer. And the anger is no longer isolated to the Prime Minister. Now the government is copping it as well.

This is what will trouble the colleagues more than the PM’s dwindling popularity.

The latest Newspoll numbers are not what was expected. By either side of politics. Popular support has fallen to those that dogged Malcolm Turnbull for the better part of his leadership.

Labor’s fear was that Morrison’s electoral thumping in early January would be a “one-off” and that he would ultimately recover and the government would emerge largely unscathed.

And that was the Coalition’s hope. It was a reasonable expectation. Morrison has more than made amends for his missteps and his rapid response to the potential pandemic posed by the coronavirus cannot be faulted. Morrison is now battling multiple national crises. Drought, fire and plague. While foremost issues of human need and the wellbeing of the nation, there is an obvious political effect. And ultimately an economic one. Morrison has yet to shows signs of panic.

Meanwhile, the party pollsters will want to quickly work out who the “four percenters” are — a reference to the fall in primary vote from 41.4 per cent at the election to 38 per cent now. And what is the issue, or issues, that may be driving them to park their vote elsewhere. Morrison has a lot of work to do. But with two years presumably before an election, there is ample time to recover ground.

To put the two-party-preferred vote in context, there are few governments that have ever had a commanding lead over the opposition for this long following an election. The leveller was destined to come.

Nor can Labor crow too loudly about its position. At 35 per cent of the primary vote, it is still short of where it would need to be to win an election, irrespective of where the 2PP vote may stand presently.

The simple fact is Morrison has a lot of work to do. This is not going to be easy when he has a Treasurer warning that the economy may go into a negative quarter of growth and the fallout of the coronavirus may punch a hole in the budget surplus.

The latest Newspoll proves wrong the notion that people don’t pay attention over summer.