Liberals face long rebuild – so why not start at epicentre in Peter Dutton’s Dickson
When Sussan Ley and her battered, depleted Liberals begin the arduous – and likely long-term – task of winning back disenchanted voters, they might want to start at ground zero.
When Sussan Ley and her battered, depleted Liberals begin the arduous – and likely long-term – task of winning back disenchanted voters who have parked their votes elsewhere, they might want to start at ground zero, about 30 minutes’ drive north of Brisbane.
Murrumba Downs, tucked along the north bank of North Pine River, is quintessential family-belt outer-suburbia. A place where 40-somethings go to raise teenage kids, walk their dogs and pay off a mortgage. Where most homes have four bedrooms or more and at least two cars in the garage.
On May 3, this otherwise peaceful suburban pocket was the epicentre of the electoral earthquake that hit the Liberal Party and its leader Peter Dutton.
The ballot-box punishment the voters of Murrumba Downs meted out was all the more extraordinary given the member of parliament on the immediate receiving end of it – who ended up losing his seat because of it – was none other than Mr Dutton.
Never mind that 15 years earlier, more than half of Murrumba Downs had handed the MP for Dickson their primary votes. Never mind their own MP was the first Queenslander to lead the federal branch of the Liberal Party.
Murrumba Downs didn’t care one jot. On May 3, barely a quarter of those who walked through the gates of Undurba State School or the Living Faith Lutheran Primary School up the road put a “1” next to Mr Dutton’s name.
With Dickson back in Labor hands for the first time since 2001, the end of the short reign of Democrat leader-turned-Labor MP Cheryl Kernot, Jim Chalmers made a show of force with a visit to the seat on Friday
New Dickson MP Ali France – standing alongside the Treasurer, new Petrie MP Emma Comer, senator Anthony Chisholm – newly appointed to Labor’s frontbench – and senator-elect Corinne Mulholland – said cost of living had been the biggest issue for voters in her electorate.
“Labor went to the election with a really great plan to address cost-of-living issues, and part of that was supporting wage increases,” Ms France said.
Dr Chalmers, Labor’s most senior Queensland MP, congratulated Ms France on her win and said wages and cost of living would be “front and centre” in the Albanese government’s second term, as they were in the first. Senator Chisholm said wages had been a “defining feature” of Labor’s first term “and I think it was a defining element to us receiving a good vote, like we did here in Dickson and Petrie to help us win these seats”.
Members turfed out
Murrumba Downs was far from alone in turning against the Liberals. Twelve seats, five of them in Queensland, have already turfed out Liberal members, while Bradfield would make it 13 if teal candidate Nicolette Beale gets over the line after an expected recount. Swings at some booths exceeded 20 per cent.
Across in Brisbane’s east, where Bonner MP Ross Vasta was swept aside, the voters in Rochedale – a wealthy, well-educated suburb with a high numbers of professionals and a large Chinese community – were particularly harsh, delivering a 14.2 primary vote swing against the sitting Liberal member.
In Queenstown on the west coast of Tasmania, the Liberal primary vote halved, slumping from 42.4 per cent in 2022 to 21.2 per cent as former Labor senator Anne Urquhart picked up the notoriously volatile seat of Braddon, vacated by retiring Liberal Gavin Pearce.
The Liberal Party had been desperate to hold on to the ultra-marginal, inner-metropolitan Adelaide seat of Sturt – but with primary vote swings of more than 15 per cent in the Magill South, Linden Park and Hillcrest booths, MP James Stevens had no hope of another term in parliament
Liberal primary vote crashes were also costly in seats they had hoped to win. Chances of winning back Kooyong in Melbourne from teal Monique Ryan were scotched – and booths such as Hawthorn South, where Amelia Hamer’s primary vote of 29.9 per cent was a huge step down from Josh Frydenberg’s 54.8 per cent in 2022 – were particularly costly.
Even in supposedly safe seats, many Liberal voters switched allegiances. In the largely rural South Australian seat of Grey, the Liberal primary vote in Risdon Park East, near Port Pirie, crashed from 44.6 per cent for Rowan Ramsey in 2022 to 22.1 per cent for new candidate Tom Venning as a teal candidate crashed another Coalition party.
And the new leadership team wasn’t immune. Sussan Ley suffered a 24.3 per cent swing against her in the tiny town of Oaklands, where she polled almost 70 per cent of the vote three years ago, while new deputy Ted O’Brien, architect of the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan, recorded double-digit swings against him in Buderim South, Burnside, Cotton Tree, Diddillibah, Kuluin and Sippy Downs West.
Ms Ley, in her first press conference after winning the leadership battle against Angus Taylor on Tuesday, said the path back to government would be through every electorate, including “every single teal seat”.
“My message is we can win back the teal seats,” the Opposition Leader said. “We will have a red-hot go at every seat we don’t hold at next election – the teals, Labor marginals, inner suburban, outer suburban.”
More push than pull
The swing away from the Liberals in Murrumba Downs – as in many suburbs throughout the nation’s capital cities – was more because of push factors than pull factors. Some of the disaffected Liberals chose third-time Labor candidate for Dickson and disabilities advocate France, but only some. Others embraced a new option in Climate 200-funded teal independent Ellie Smith or turned to the Greens, One Nation or Trumpet of Patriots.
But no matter which option they chose, the flight away from the Liberals sealed the end of Mr Dutton’s 24-year parliamentary career and his three-year leadership of the Liberal Party, and elevated Ms France to parliament.
While the Liberals suffered a nationwide swing of about 3 per cent and the former opposition leader suffered a seat-wide primary vote swing of 7.1 per cent, in Murrumba Downs it was double that, reaching 14.2 per cent across the two booths. At the Lutheran School booth in Murrumba Downs North, the anti-Liberal swing topped 18 per cent.
Median incomes in Murrumba Downs sit just above the national average and, given the substantial commute to Brisbane’s CBD, the median house price is yet to reach $1m, so mortgage stress isn’t as prevalent as in many other capital city suburbs.
High school completion rates are above average but the gap between the number of tertiary degree-holders and those with trade certificates is smaller than across the nation as a whole.
While the Liberal vote in Murrumba Downs has changed dramatically since Mr Dutton’s high point in 2010, the demographics haven’t. At the 2011 census, as now, 40-somethings were the dominant age group, though their families were younger, with kids more likely to be aged 0 to 9 than in their teens. Clerical and administration workers topped the workforce, particularly those in schools, whereas now professionals have top spot. And median incomes sat a bit further above the national mark than they do now.
The bottom line is Murrumba Downs is classic Middle Australia. It was a prime target zone for both major parties on May 3 and will be again at the 2028 election.
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