Liberals set to lose blue-ribbon Pittwater to teal in NSW by-elections

Climate 200-backed independent Jacqui Scruby is set to snare blue-ribbon Pittwater from the Liberals as counting continued across three Sydney by-elections.

Independent candidate Jacqui Scruby is likely to take the blue-ribbon seat of Pittwater from the Liberals.

Climate 200-backed independent Jacqui Scruby is set to snare blue-ribbon Pittwater from the Liberals and become the first ‘teal’ NSW MP as counting continued across three Sydney by-elections on Saturday night.

With more than 60 per cent of the votes counted, the ABC projected “teal independent” Ms Scruby would take the Northern Beaches seat ahead of Liberal challenger Georgia Ryburn.

At 8.30pm, Ms Scruby had received about 54 per cent of first-preference votes with a swing of about 18 per cent swing towards the independent.

It would make it second time lucky in Pittwater for Ms Scruby, who lost to Rory Amon at the 2023 state election by a few hundred votes.

Mr Amon resigned from parliament in August after being charged with child sex offences and, after she announced her candidacy, Ms Scruby was always seen as the frontrunner.

Liberal insiders on Saturday night, however, said they were shocked by the nature and apparent scale of Ms Scruby’s win.

The ABC has, however, projected that the Liberals would retain the seats of Hornsby and Epping, where candidates James Wallace and Monica Tudehope recorded swings towards the party.

Pittwater had always been viewed as difficult to retain – given Ms Scruby’s popularity and the nature of Mr Amon’s resignation – and the by-elections posed a potential banana skin for NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman’s party after a winter of political discontent amid a bungled local government election process, which led to a 10-month federal takeover.

Teal independent Jacqui Scruby voting on Saturday, watched by her three daughters, in Pittwater.

Epping and Hornsby were vacated upon the resignations of former premier Dominic Perrottet and ex-Treasurer Matt Kean. Labor is not running candidates in any of the three seats.

Ms Scruby’s victory would make it another success for Climate 200 on Sydney’s Northern Beaches after the ‘teal wave’ at the 2022 federal election.

At NSW parliament, she would join Wakehurst’s Michael Regan as another independent MP in the Northern Beaches and would be the first state ‘teal’, although Wollondilly MP Judy Hannan received funding from Climate 200 at the 2023 state election.

At the time of publication, in Hornsby, Mr Wallace had 51 per cent of first-preference votes with 64 per cent counted. In Epping, Ms Tudehope had recorded 57 per cent of first-preferences with about 56 per cent of votes counted.

Both results will encourage the Liberals who, albeit without Labor running candidates, appear to have progressed their share compared with the 2023 election with young candidates viewed as part of its next generation.

Tensions had simmered publicly in Pittwater amid a game of “who was more local” between Ms Scruby and Ms Ryburn’s camps, but the pair were seen dancing together at a booth and there remains goodwill between the two.

Liberal sources suggested that the electorate was no longer a blue-ribbon stronghold and was anecdotally notionally “independent”, instigated by the teal federal success in 2022, which saw the area’s federal electorate back Climate 200-backed Sophie Scamps.

Climate 200 executive director Byron Fay grew up in the electorate and the group has supported Ms Scruby’s campaign. The independent candidate said earlier on Saturday that voters were “disenfranchised and disappointed” with the state Liberals.

“People here are ready for a different way of doing politics … they want representation that’s not focused on party politics, but focused on people and communities,” she said.

Ms Ryburn said on Saturday that the Liberals were aware it would be a “tight by-election” but that feedback on the doorstep acknowledged that the party had delivered for the area.

Monica Tudehope (left), Georgia Ryburn and James Wallace. Picture: Justin Lloyd

The final candidate in Pittwater is Libertarian Doug Rennie, who appears to have taken votes from the Liberals after the party made record gains at September’s local government elections.

Of the three by-elections, Mr Speakman said the pressure was not on him or his party but appeared to be on NSW Premier Chris Minns, criticising Labor’s decision not to field any candidates.

“(Labor) are nowhere to be seen, (Premier Minns) won’t front up to voters,” he said, adding that the party was under no illusions that Pittwater would be difficult but that in each of the three contests the Liberals had worked to “win the support” of voters.

In Epping, Ms Tudehope – daughter of the state opposition’s treasury spokesman Damien Tudehope – was the overwhelming favourite in a field of five candidates, including the Greens, Libertarians, and two independents.

Liberal campaign sources said voters were “very positive” to Ms Tudehope, preselected as the party’s candidate after Mr Perrottet retired from politics to relocate to the United States.

In Hornsby, Mr Wallace – described by right-faction sources as a Mr Kean moderate “acolyte” – had also been a clear favourite in a larger field of nine candidates.