Liberal senator Marise Payne announces retirement, fires preselection starting gun

Two political heavyweights have emerged as possible frontrunners in the race to snatch up outgoing Liberal MP Marise Payne’s vacant Senate spot.

Two political heavyweights have emerged as possible frontrunners in the race to snatch up outgoing Liberal MP Marise Payne’s vacant Senate spot, after the former foreign minister announced her retirement following nearly three decades in politics.

Leading No campaigner Warren Mundine and former NSW MP Andrew Constance have both been touted by Liberal Party insiders as the most likely candidates, while others have indicated Catholic Schools NSW CEO Dallas McInerney may also throw his hat in the ring.

Following a week of speculation, Senator Payne on Friday announced she would leave politics, saying her time serving as a NSW senator had been an “extraordinary honour”.

Senator Payne’s departure will instigate a ‘frenzied’ Liberal preselection process to replace her. Picture: Andrew Taylor

“It has been a great honour to serve and I sincerely thank all those who have worked and supported me over more than two decades,” she said in a statement.

“I look forward to the next phase of my professional life … using the invaluable experience I’ve gained to continue to make a contribution to our country.”

Senator Payne’s retirement will instigate what is expected to be a fierce internal battle to fill her position. However, it is understood that prior to this week party ranks had not expected her to leave so abruptly, and thus potential candidates had not yet focused their minds to the possibility of an upcoming preselection.

Liberal sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, predicted an incoming “frenzy”.

The Australian understands Mr Mundine could be seen as an early frontrunner, especially in the instance of a successful No vote in October’s Indigenous voice referendum.

Talk among party members touts Warren Mundine as likely to run to replace Ms Payne. Picture: Sky News

“Warren is popular, he has lots of friends in the party and has done enough to be a contender,” one Liberal source said.

Right-wing Liberal members, who are split across three factions, could internally coalesce around a candidate who wouldn’t splinter the vote, sources said. They said that candidate could possibly be Mr Mundine, who could likely garner support from both the right and centre-right of the party.

“It’s a clear bet that Alex Hawke and the right will come in behind Mundine,” another party source said.

Mr Constance, who was beaten by then NSW Liberal president Maria Kovacic in the race to fill the late Jim Molan’s senator spot in May, is also likely to run.

Mr Constance is close with Senator Payne and her partner former NSW MP Stuart Ayres, both of whom backed his attempt to fill Mr Molan’s seat.

Mr McInerney has also emerged as a potential contender. But while one source said Mr McInerney was “polished”, other Liberal insiders with knowledge of the situation doubted whether he was a realistic candidate, particularly given his affiliation to the “imploded” Perrottet and Tudehope right faction.

“The right faction in power aren’t fans of his,” one source said.

The race to fill Senator Payne’s vacancy comes as the party sets preselection timelines for a swathe of other federal seats, in a push to secure candidates early.

Two notable Sydney seats, however, were not included: Scott Morrison’s Cook and Teal-held Mackellar, where Sophie Scamps ousted now NSW Liberal president Jason Falinski.

In Cook, where it had seemed likely Mr Morrison would resign, party sources with knowledge of the situation said it had become increasingly unlikely the former prime minister would leave before the next federal election.

“The party would rather not have the seat under focus in a by-election, particularly with any potential Teal threat,” one party source, unauthorised to speak publicly, said.

Mr Morrison has not found a new role to go to, but sources revealed that popular Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce had “locked in the numbers” and “wins any preselection”.

In Mackellar, sources wondered whether the delay to the seat’s time frame was to allow its former member, Mr Falinski, time to mount a manoeuvre to position himself as the candidate. Under party rules, the state president cannot also concurrently be a parliamentary candidate.