Liberal ‘leader in waiting’ counts on a swing to win seat

The likely future leadership of the Victorian Liberal Party is riding on one of the tightest races in Saturday’s election, with former frontbencher John Pesutto holding a 480-vote lead over teal independent Melissa Lowe in his bid to re-enter parliament.

“I’ve doorknocked thousands of homes with my team, a large chunk of them with my wife”: John Pesutto with wife Betty. Picture: Valeriu Campan

The likely future leadership of the Victorian Liberal Party is riding on one of the tightest races in Saturday’s election, with former frontbencher John Pesutto holding a 480-vote lead over teal independent Melissa Lowe in his bid to re-enter parliament.

Mr Pesutto, who lost the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy in a shock result for all concerned in 2018, would have run for the leadership of the party had he held his seat.

The Australian understands the former lawyer and opposition legal affairs spokesman intends to nominate for the leadership this time should he succeed, with former cop Brad Battin expected to put his hat in the ring and several others canvassing numbers but viewed as less likely to have sufficient support.

Mr Pesutto on Sunday said he and his team were feeling positive about Hawthorn “but it is still too close to call”.

“We feel like we’re in a better position than we were at the same time four years ago,” he said.

“It certainly didn’t feel like this and trends have been good at pre-poll and on postals.

“Whatever the result, I’m just really proud of my team because we focused on a community-­driven campaign with a really strong focus on voter contact.”

As well as providing the Liberals with a widely respected candidate for leader, Mr Pesutto’s success in Hawthorn – coupled with former Josh Frydenberg staffer and Business Council executive Jess Wilson’s win against teal candidate Sophie Torney in neighbouring Kew – would have federal implications.

John Pesutto is the likely next leader of the Victorian Liberal Party. Picture: Valeriu Campan

Both Kew and Hawthorn overlap with the federal seat of ­Kooyong, lost by then-treasurer Frydenberg to Climate 200-backed independent Monique Ryan in May.

Both Ms Lowe and Ms Torney’s bids for election have drawn heavily upon resources and personnel linked to Dr Ryan, who has been an active and visible supporter of the two campaigns.

Mr Pesutto said he was particularly grateful to his wife, Betty, for her tireless support of his campaign. “I’ve doorknocked thousands of homes with my team, a large chunk of them with my wife, Betty, who came out with me just about every single day, and if there’s any breakout star of our Hawthorn campaign, it’s her,” he said.

He also offered his congratulations to Ms Wilson. “Jess did a fantastic job in Kew. It was a tough campaign, particularly coming off the back of the federal election in May,” Mr Pesutto said. “She’ll make a terrific contribution, not only to Kew, but to Victoria.”

While many Liberals The Australian spoke with on Sunday were open in their support for Mr Pesutto as the party’s next leader, there is also significant support for Mr Battin, who is pitching himself as a candidate to win back outer suburban seats.

A senior Liberal claimed the Coalition had been on track to secure a 7 per cent swing going into the last week of the campaign, and attributed the fall in support to two crucial incidents: the Victorian Electoral Commission’s referral of Mr Guy to the corruption watchdog over a donations scandal involving his former chief of staff, and Treasury spokesman David Davis’s failure to answer crucial questions about Coalition election costings two days before the poll.

“The referral to IBAC was unbelievably impactful. It stirred up all those existing doubts over whether Matthew was a credible alternative premier,” the senior Liberal said. “Similarly, long-held hesitations voters might have had about our capability and capacity as an alternative government and competent managers of the economy were cemented with David’s performance on Thursday.”

Mr Davis’s position as upper house leader is understood to be under pressure, with his deputy, Georgie Crozier, and transport infrastructure spokesman Matthew Bach viewed as replacements.

There are questions on whether Mr Guy will remain in parliament after losing two elections, with Dr Bach seen as a likely contender to try to move to the lower house should Mr Guy quit politics.