Census 2021: Less than half Indigenous population growth attributable to ‘natural increase’

Natural population growth cannot account for more than half of the increase in people identifying as Indigenous in the latest census data.

The 2021 census found about 983,000 people in Australia now say they have Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origins. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

Natural population growth cannot account for more than half of the increase in people identifying as Indigenous in the latest census.

The most recent survey, completed in 2021, found that about 983,000 people in Australia now say they have Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origins.

That is a jump of about 185,000 people or roughly 23 per cent from the previous count in 2016, which measured just 798,000 such individuals.

Demographers say only about 45 per cent of the change is attributable to “natural increase” or the balance of births minus deaths. That means around 100,000 people or one-tenth of the Indigenous population identified in this census either did not identify as such in the last census or were not properly counted.

Australian National University research fellow Francis Markham, who analysed the data, said most of the unexplained increases had occurred in southeastern parts of the country.

“These changing patterns of identification are concentrated in Australia’s southeast, with 89 per cent of the unexpected population increase taking place in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania,” he said.

“In the Northern Territory, on the other hand, the Indigenous census count is consistent with natural increase and a small degree of interstate migration, with little evidence of identification change. Consequently, the share of the Indigenous population who live in the Northern Territory has fallen from around 9 per cent to 7.5 per cent.”

There were almost 1000 fewer Indigenous people counted in the NT in 2021 than would be expected based on the 2016 figures. The Territory has a high Indigenous birthrate compared to other parts of the nation, making the undercount especially surprising.

The findings are important because census data is used to determine allocation of such things as GST funds meant to equalise service provision in disadvantaged areas. People identifying as Indigenous in eastern states could unintentionally be steering resources away from impoverished outback communities.

A spokeswoman said the NT government was “aware of census trends in Indigenous demographic and self-identification changes”. “The possible impacts of these trends on GST funding were raised by the Northern Territory government in submissions to the commonwealth and Commonwealth Grants Commission following the 2011 census. This resulted in the development of a GST assessment measure based on geographic socio-economic data.

“This measure has been further considered in subsequent GST assessments. The Northern Territory government is in continuous discussion with the Commonwealth Grants Commission on GST distribution methodologies to ensure that changes in patterns of self-identification do not disadvantage the Territory.”

Member for Lingiari Marion Scrymgour with her predecessor Warren Snowden.

Labor MP for the outback federal NT seat of Lingiari, Marion Scrymgour, said the apparent census figures were concerning and warranted further research.

A spokesman for Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney did not respond to questions.