Labor’s 23-year grip on ACT power ‘in trouble’ amid independent threat

The nation’s longest-serving political leader, Andrew Barr, is at risk of losing power at the upcoming ACT election, as a new wave of community independents threatens to sweep Labor out of government.

ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

A wave of independents is threatening to sweep Labor out of power at the upcoming ACT election, an expert has warned, as Chief Minister Andrew Barr defends his government’s track record of economic growth and developing infrastructure.

Australian National University political marketing expert Andrew Hughes said Labor was “in trouble” in the nation’s capital, as the party contends with an “appetite for change” among voters after 23 years in office and the threat of a new party, Independents for Canberra.

Though predicting the outcome of an ACT election can be fraught due to a lack of polling, Dr Hughes said a strong campaign powered by 20 candidates across the Territory’s five electorates put the new party of independents in the position to pick up as many as five seats.

Running under the slogan “it’s time for change”, Independents for Canberra has been unofficially led by Thomas Emerson, the son of former federal Labor MP Craig Emerson and a former David Pocock staffer,

An informal poll by local news outlet Riotact reflected a tight race with the same proportion of voters, 26 per cent, signalling they would vote for Labor and the Independents for Canberra, 25 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the Greens.

Independents for Canberra lead candidate Thomas Emerson is one of 20 candidates contesting the ACT election.

Dr Hughes said Mr Barr would struggle to hold on to the seats required to retain the balance of power on the 25-seat Legislative Assembly, which he governs through an alliance with the Greens. Labor holds 10 seats, the Greens six and the Liberals eight, with one independent.

“You’ve got the Greens with six seats currently; the Greens will stand to lose the most because the independents are taking from their vote, and not so much (from) Labor or the Liberals,” he told The Weekend Australian.

“So that said, Labor should get nine, say the Liberals get eight, the Greens three, which is 20, and then five seats for the independents, so they’ll decide the balance of power.

“If you go for a Labor-Greens alliance, that’s nine and three, which is what I think might happen.

“So it’s a long way out, and I have no polling numbers, so I’m probably going to be wrong, but nine and three is 12. They won’t have a government.”

But Mr Barr has hit back at suggestions his government could be brought undone by a sentiment among voters that political change was overdue, declaring that Labor had a “practical and proven plan for Canberra’s future”. He also argued his government had overseen strong jobs numbers, with 270,000 positions in the Territory, and economic growth, with the ACT’s gross state product close to $50bn.

“Proven experience and stable leadership is a key feature of our campaign,” Mr Barr said.

“This government has demonstrated effective leadership during major emergencies like bushfires and the Covid-19 pandemic.

“ACT Labor has been setting out a practical and proven plan for Canberra’s future.”

Dr Hughes said that while the Independents for Canberra group lacked “depth” in its policy platform, the “mood is definitely there” for a change, and the new party could find itself in the position to forge an alliance with the Liberals to form government.

“Five seats plus the Liberals’ eight could give them government if they make the right deal in the right way,” he said.

Dr Hughes said the seat to watch would be Kurrajong where Mr Barr, ACT Health Minister Rachel Stephen Smith, Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, Greens deputy leader Rebecca Vassarotti, ACT Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee and Mr Emerson were all vying for a seat.

Following a series of scandals involving Liberal candidates in recent weeks that prompted the party to disendorse one sitting member, Dr Hughes also cautioned that Ms Lee’s election chances could be hampered by internal division within the party.

He also raised concerns about the Liberals’ promise to cap rate increases at 2.2 per cent, pointing out that the ACT does not have many other revenue streams to underpin its budget position.

He also said independent candidate Fiona Carrick would be one to watch, after she secured 7 per cent of the vote in the 2020 election.