Kingmaker: huge spending campaign hits pay dirt

A surge in support hands Clive Palmer the power to act as kingmaker in marginal seats.

Businessman Clive Palmer. Picture: AAP

A surge in support for Clive Palmer on the back of a $30 million ­advertising campaign has given the billionaire the power to act as kingmaker in marginal seats, as the Coalition closes in on Labor in at least two of those electorates.

An exclusive Newspoll of four marginal seats across the country, conducted for The Australian, shows the divisive Queensland businessman and former failed MP could also be on track to hold the balance of power in the Senate.

The poll found the four seats — Herbert in north Queensland, Lindsay in western Sydney, ­Deakin in outer Melbourne and Pearce on Perth’s outskirts — rest on a knife edge, with preference flows from minor parties set to ­determine the outcome.

The Australian understands senior Liberals are in advanced discussions with Mr Palmer’s team in a bid to secure preference deals.

Marginal seats - two-party preferred: Newspoll

The surprise return of Mr Palmer as a political force four years after his previous party’s collapse comes as Bill Shorten struggles to win over voters. Almost twice as many people polled in the four seats believed Scott Morrison would be a better prime minister.

Mr Morrison leads Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister 49 to 27 per cent in Herbert, 53-33 in Lindsay, 51-37 in Deakin and 53-26 in Pearce.

The poll found Liberal MP ­Michael Sukkar was almost ­assured of retaining Deakin but the LNP was in an arm-wrestle to wrest back Herbert from Labor. Labor is threatening in Attorney-General Christian Porter’s Liberal heartland seat of Pearce while the Liberals are in the game to win back Lindsay, which has changed hands four times since 1996.

The poll recorded a primary vote for Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party of between 5 per cent in Deakin and 14 per cent in Herbert. Averaged across the four seats, Mr Palmer commands about 8 per cent of the primary vote, eclipsing One Nation and almost double the result at the 2013 election when his Palmer United Party burst on to the political stage.

Newspoll table on marginal seats

If the level of support shown in the lower house seats were replicated in the Senate, UAP could win up to three upper house seats.

Mr Palmer’s party has pumped $31 million into advertising, ­according to data and analytics group Nielsen, and is expected to increase spending to about $50m by May 18 election.

The UAP’s star recruit in Herbert, former State of Origin rugby league player Greg Dowling, yesterday told The Australian he was against directing preferences to Labor ahead of the ­LNP, a move that could damage ALP ­incumbent Cathy O’Toole.

Mr Dowling, who was ­endorsed as the UAP candidate in the nation’s most marginal seat last week after Mr Palmer abandoned plans to contest the seat himself in favour of a Senate bid, said: “Put it this way, I’ve never been a Labor supporter in my life”.

The poll assumed a conser­vative preference split of 50-50 from UAP to the major parties.

In 2013, PUP preferences on ­average flowed 54 per cent to Liberal/LNP and 46 per cent to Labor, and in some seats broke as high as 60 per cent to the ­Coalition.

In Herbert, held by Labor on a margin of 0.02 per cent, minor parties and independents now make up 38 per cent of the primary vote, with UAP commanding the largest block at 14 per cent. Popular North Queensland MP Bob ­Katter’s party has also gained 3.1 percentage points to ­secure 10 per cent of the primary vote.

The rise of UAP and KAP has come at the expense of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has nosedived 4.5 percentage points to 9 per cent following political and personality-driven scandals.

The troubling news for the major parties in Herbert, which takes in Townsville, is both have suffered a primary vote fall since the 2016 election, with the LNP dropping 3.5 points to 31 per cent and Labor falling 1.5 points to 29 per cent putting the result deadlocked at 50/50 on a two-party-preferred basis. A strong break of preferences from UAP in a seat where voters are disillusioned with the big parties could see the seat go back to the LNP. In other Queensland seats, the LNP could be threatened if UAP takes preferences from Katter and One Nation, and delivers back a lower preference flow to the LNP than the conservative minor parties.

On the other side of the country, UAP has polled 8 per cent in Pearce, where Mr Porter is being challenged by former police officer Kim Travers. The Liberals have dropped 5.4 points to a primary vote of 40 per cent, with Labor picking up slightly to 36 per cent. This has reduced the two-party-preferred lead of 53.6-46.4 per cent at the 2016 election to 50-50.

The Liberal Party is poised to mount a challenge in Lindsay where it is fielding mother of three Melissa McIntosh against former NSW Labor minister Diane Beamer, who has replaced former Labor MP Emma Husar as the candidate. Ms Husar resigned over allegations of bullying staff.

The Liberal Party has increased its primary vote almost two points to 41 per cent compared with a reduced Labor vote of 40 per cent. Mr Palmer’s UAP sits on 7 per cent, having taken votes from other conservative minor parties. The two-party-preferred split of 51-49 has Labor just in front.

Mr Sukkar, the conservative powerbroker Labor has targeted over the removal of Malcolm Turnbull, is placed to hold Deakin with a primary vote of 46 per cent — a drop of about four points on the 2016 election. However, his margin could be reduced, with Labor’s primary vote lifting from 30 per cent to 39 per cent at the ­expense of the Greens.

The poll of 2191 voters across the four seats was conducted on Saturday.

The margin of error is between 3.9 and 4.3 percentage points.