Trump card unplayed as senior US Republicans consider shut-out

Republican presidential candidate Senator Marco Rubio during a campaign stop in Rochester, New Hampshire.

As Barack Obama’s two terms in the White House wind down, the story of the US presidential election campaign for 2016 is the remarkable rise of Donald Trump.

The idea of Trump as a serious presidential candidate for the Republican Party — just six months before the nomination must be settled for the November poll — confounds some of the best and brightest American experts in the political prognostication business.

Surely by now, or so they thought, his star would fade. Surely American voters on the conservative side would see the shallowness of this man and switch to a more orthodox contender with a real chance of beating the anticipated Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Yet Trump’s popularity has only surged with each wild, inflammatory and often extreme comment that has tumbled from his lips. The standing of the New York real estate entrepreneur with a big mouth, no experience in public office and a trail of bankruptcies continues to stay strong or improve in opinion polls.

Surveys of Republican voters vary but consistently show Trump in the lead.

A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll rated Trump’s support at 27 per cent, followed by Texas senator Ted Cruz on 22 per cent.

The most astounding result for Trump so far was a Washington Post/ABC poll before Christmas putting his support at close to 40 per cent — more than double the backing for Cruz.

What about a ban on Muslims entering the US in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks? No problem in the land of the free, according to Trump.

His blunt advocacy of a discriminatory immigration policy based on religion clearly prompted immediate condemnation from party rivals — but it didn’t turn off potential party voters.

What about describing illegal immigrants from Mexico as “rapists” and promoting a policy — one of few in Trump’s kitbag — to build an enormous wall along the US border? What to do about the 12 million undocumented migrants living in the US? Easy: deport them.

So far, a barrage of abusive, racist and factually incorrect generalisations from Trump has proved no impediment to his campaign momentum.

It seems not to matter to Trump that the Hispanic population that accounts for a significant US voter bloc, and will continue as the fastest growing of any ethic grouping in the nation, is deeply offended at Trump’s characterisation of them as a group.

Certainly the possibility that Trump could actually win the Republican nomination for president is disturbing senior establishment figures in his conservative party. These are Republican hardheads who endorse their party’s shift further to the right but also recognise the importance of demographics; they know the Hispanic vote is one the GOP needs to win in decades ahead.

More important in the short term, Republican leaders want a winner who can beat Clinton, who almost certainly has the Democratic nomination sewn up this time.

To this end, the Republican establishment ideally needs a candidate closer to the traditional fit with a combination of strong conservative credentials and governing experience — not some wacky, unpredictable self-promoter like Trump who specialises in public relations stunts and will not play the party tune.

Shortly before Christmas, the degree of anxiety at senior levels of the Republican Party was exposed by a reported meeting of party chiefs including Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell. The group canvassed the possibility of a fight on the floor of the GOP’s convention in July that will decide the party’s nomination — with the intention of shutting out Trump and installing a more plausible, more appealing candidate.

Just as the election of Obama in 2008 was a reaction to the failures of George W. Bush as president and a testimony to Obama’s amazing oratorical skill in capturing the mood of his nation, so too is the Trump phenomenon an indication of his ability to seize on a sea of disenchantment.

The US economy has finally recovered from the post-financial crisis slump, and America’s image abroad is better than it was.

Obama, meanwhile, is regarded, even among his supporters, as a disappointment. While history may treat him more kindly as the leader who presided over recovery, introduced a universal healthcare system of sorts, and exercised caution in committing the US to more wars and more body bags, the apparent indecisive and aloof nature of this Democratic President has proved a turn-off to many.

Trump is short on detail but offers what many people want: simple solutions to complex problems. His slogan “Make America Great Again!” is what many Republican voters want to hear, even if it has a familiar Ron­ald Reagan ring about it.

A breakdown of opinion poll figures indicates that Trump appeals most to working-class Americans without a university education who want a straight-talking presidential candidate who thinks like they do.

Trump also has scooped up support from the disillusioned rump of “tea party” voters from recent years who reject Washington’s establishment and yearn for an outsider with the guts to fight big government, cut taxes and restore US pride.

He appears never to let facts get in the way of a campaign that often comes across as wild and devoid of reason. Yet, on the contrary, a detailed survey of Trump’s thousands of speeches, interviews and tweets during the past six months by The Washington Post concluded that the real estate mogul and former reality TV host is indeed a disciplined, methodical campaigner. Detected behind apparent chaos was a strategy: Trump likes to experiment with insults and statements that have a grain of truth to them even if not strictly correct.

He tries them out a few times. If they yield a good response or spark controversy, he will repeat them; if they fall flat, he will drop them.

Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor whose campaign is struggling, decided to tackle Trump head-on during the last Republican candidates’ TV debate last month.

“Donald, you’re not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency — that’s not going to happen,” he said. “Leadership is not about attacking people. Leadership is about creating a serious strategy.”

Undeterred, Trump lashed out. “With Jeb’s attitude we will never be great again.”

Trump’s insults don’t stop there. Last month he referred to Cruz as a “maniac” — an obvious reference to Cruz’s past bad press as the “wrecker” who led a congress budget revolt that shut down the US government.

Although Trump’s campaign is focused on the internal battle to win his party’s nomination, he gave an indication this week of what a one-on-one contest with Clinton could look like after she accused him of sexism.

Trump’s tactic was to turn the attack on Bill Clinton, and his scandalous relationships with women, most notably Monica Lew­insky. “And she wants to accuse me of things. And the husband’s one of the great abusers of the world. Give me a break,” Trump retorted.

It is still more likely that the Republican candidate facing Hillary Clinton in November will not be Trump.

Nate Silver, the astute number cruncher of US politics and founding editor of FiveThirtyEight, argues that the strong polling figures for Trump do not represent his actual support within the Republican Party.

According to Silver, Trump’s support in the party is really a fraction of its base, while most Republican voters have not yet made up their mind about a candidate. Silver also questions the nature of Trump’s support, claiming much of it comes from Americans unlikely to vote.

Charlie Cook, the respected election analyst and publisher of the Cook Political Report, suspects rank-and-file Republicans will continue to vent their anger for some time yet by backing Trump — but political reality will prevail.

“My hunch is that, at some point, voters will conjure up a mental picture of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a CIA director and others of careful judgment gathered around the conference table in the Situation Room, with American lives and treasure at stake. Will a majority of Republicans want to visualise Trump sitting at the head of the table, making the big decision? I doubt it.”

The true strength of Trump’s support will be known soon enough. Looming tests are party caucus and primary votes to be held in three states: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Cruz is likely to win in Iowa; Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, could win in New Hampshire despite his overall 5 per cent backing in national polls; South Carolina could go with Cruz if he gains momentum.

If Trump fails to pick up any of the first three states, then his support base will be exposed as hollow and his campaign will most likely collapse — possibly quickly. Trump’s status as the Republican campaign leader is rooted entirely in polls. The danger to his continued success is that — unlike Cruz and some of the other contenders — Trump’s on-the-ground campaign organisation looks weak in key primary states he must win.

Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, tells The Weekend Australian that Trump’s support “among Republicans” reflects the deep anger of the party base that Obama has been successful in taking the US to the left, and that the Republican leadership in congress has been ineffectual in stopping him. While not ruling out the possibility that Republicans may pick a counter-establishment candidate, Sabato thinks it unlikely.

“Trump is not going to be president,” he says. “We’re crazy but we’re not that crazy. The question is the nomination. I would still bet that Republicans will settle on a non-Trump candidate. But I’m old enough to remember 1964 and 1972, when first the GOP — Goldwater — and then Democrats — McGovern — picked nominees that lost in landslides.

“Every now and then, a major party will jump the tracks and make a deadly mistake.”

The chief beneficiary of a slump in Trump’s support or his deserting the race is likely to be Cruz. The Republican establishment, wary of Cruz, would probably prefer Florida senator Marco Rubio — presently with about 15 per cent support — even if Rubio is considered too liberal for many in the party. The other big question is whether it is too late for former Florida governor Bush, languishing on 5 per cent to 7 per cent, to make a comeback.

In early 2008, John McCain’s campaign for president was looking sick, but he did make a comeback and won the Republican nomination. Bush has the campaign money to outspend all others, but he is seen as a flop. His key problem is his name — another Bush now is widely considered one too many — but there are also doubts about whether his heart is in the fight.

Sabato says Bush has been a poor campaigner and his more liberal views on immigration are not shared by many in the party.

If Trump, unexpectedly, does arrive at the Republican convention with more state delegates than other candidates, then the fireworks will begin. The last time a brokered convention occurred was in 1976, when backroom deals and last-minute delegate swapping blocked Reagan and assured the nomination for the politically wounded incumbent president, Gerald Ford, who then lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

The risk for the Republican Party is if Trump’s campaign falters and he turns petulant by running as an independent candidate. With questions swirling about his party loyalty, Trump was forced to declare during the last Republican candidates’ debate of 2015 that he would stick with his party and not go independent.

Clinton’s camp is hoping Trump will change his mind. Trump as a third-wheel candidate would split the Republican vote at a cost to the party’s nominee as possibly 5 per cent or more peeled off to back the outspoken independent.

The prospect of another Clinton could be a hard sell for Hillary, just as it is for Jeb Bush. An independent run by Trump would seal victory for her.