State elections: Xenophon will outperform Hanson as centre holds

One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson.

Politicians understand that to win elections they need to secure the middle ground. That is where election results are decided.

There can be no better demonstration of this than the forthcoming elections in Queensland and South Australia. In both states we have seen a rise in support for significant minor parties.

In the latest Newspoll state poll for Queensland, primary support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation stands at 16 per cent. This is below the vote achieved in the 1998 state election, when One Nation Mark I achieved 22.7 per cent and won 11 seats. But it represents a remarkable comeback for a party that secured just 0.9 per cent of the vote at the last state election.

In a Galaxy Poll conducted for Adelaide’s The Sunday Mail in June, Nick Xenophon’s SA Best received 21 per cent of the primary support.

Neither of these parties is expected to contest all seats and if they concentrate their effort in electorates that are eminently winnable, this should ensure that in several seats their candidates finish first or second after the primary votes are counted.

Despite some similarities in the rise of these parties, it is likely one could end up with little or no representation in the next state parliament while the other is so successful that its leader has a chance of becoming the premier.

How could such a disparity occur in a democratic system? Quite simply, it demonstrates the importance of capturing the middle ground.

In Queensland, the Labor Party has confirmed it will place One Nation last on its how-to-vote cards. If voters follow the party directive, this means Labor preferences will elect Liberal National Party candidates where the contest comes down to LNP versus One Nation.

It’s not so clear which party will prevail in seats where LNP candidates finish third, as the LNP has not ruled out individual preference deals.

Even if unofficial deals are done, the problem for One Nation is that Hanson has a polarising effect and this will result in significant leakage of LNP preferences to Labor.

A possible consequence is that LNP voters unwilling to direct their preferences to One Nation could unwittingly give Labor the numbers it needs to ensure a second term for the Palaszczuk government.

In all likelihood it will not matter whether One Nation candidates are battling Labor or the LNP for a seat, as the distribution of preferences in both scenarios would not be significantly to their advantage.

Xenophon will step down from the Senate to contest the seat of Hartley in the SA state election.

In South Australia it is a different story. Xenophon has announced that he will step down from the Senate to lead SA Best and contest the seat of Hartley at the state election in March.

A recent Galaxy Poll administered on behalf of Adelaide’s The Advertiser has confirmed that Xenophon has a good chance of winning the seat from sitting member Vincent Tarzia of the Liberal Party.

The poll found that although Tarzia leads on primary support, the preference flow from Labor and Greens supporters gives Xenophon the lead on a two-party preferred basis.

For Labor and Greens voters, the centrist SA Best represents a more palatable option than the Liberal Party.

A similar outcome may be expected in seats that come down to Labor versus SA Best on a two-party preferred basis.

In this instance, the preference flow from Liberal voters will favour SA Best candidates because they will be considered a more acceptable choice.

With preferences flowing from left and right, it is clear how the preferential system we have in Australia favours a centrist party.

Xenophon is expected to field candidates in fewer than half the 47 electorates in the SA House of Assembly, which would mean his party cannot possibly secure a majority of seats in the next parliament. Despite this, if SA Best can win 12 seats or more, it may be able to claim leadership status in a minority government.

This represents a dilemma for the Labor and the Liberal parties. They could seek to avert this outcome by agreeing to direct the flow of preferences away from SA Best.

However, this could backfire and play into the hands of a wily operator such as Xenophon. If the major parties are seen to be ganging up to maintain the status quo, this would provide all the ammunition Xenophon needs to mount a successful election campaign.

Such success will evade Hanson’s One Nation at the Queensland election. Starved of preferences, there is little chance the party can translate its strong primary vote into meaningful influence after the votes have been counted.

David Briggs is managing director of Galaxy Research, which conducts Newspoll on behalf of The Australian.